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The ASX edged higher today, extending yesterday’s move, following the Federal Reserve’s move to push the cash rate higher overnight. The Fed delivered the 25bp hike as expected, though commentary pointed to further tightening as Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated a firm stance on inflation. That initially pushed global markets lower, although bond yields subsequently eased and provided some relief for equities.
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The ASX 200 eked out a +0.3% gain ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, primarily courtesy of a bounce by the miners, while CBA was the largest drag on the local index, slipping 0.6%. It was encouraging to see the selling pressure across the ASX subside, but with markets becoming increasingly hawkish, we feel investors require some “good news” before they take on more risk with global central banks set to start hiking as elevated oil prices continue to stoke inflation expectations.
The ASX finished modestly higher today in a mixed session with energy the clear standout as elevated oil prices continued to support the sector, while parts of the broader resources complex attempted to stabilise after recent heavy selling.
The ASX 200 fell another 0.9% on Tuesday, extending September’s decline to 4.5% and pushing the index into negative territory for 2026. The local market has become something of the “ugly duckling” among its global peers, particularly compared with Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) and the US S&P 500 (+12%).
The ASX continued its slide today, falling to a fresh three-month low as banks and miners came under renewed pressure, extending the broader market weakness. The index is now down around 6.5% from its 6 August record high. Macro continues to drive the sell-off; news flow around individual companies is almost non-existent, with oil, bond yields, and expectations for further central bank tightening later this week dominating sentiment.
The ASX 200 did well to eke out a modest gain on Monday despite a steady stream of negative news and weakness across global equity markets. Gains in the banks almost exactly offset weakness in the miners as the news continued to weigh on the previously high-flying sector
The ASX broke a four-day losing streak today, but only just, finishing essentially flat after an early gain of around ~0.3% faded through the afternoon.
The oil price is starting to weigh heavily on bond markets and the ASX, but US stocks are taking the geopolitical unrest in its stride, despite markets now pricing in two Fed 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas.
The ASX 200 fell 2.9% last week, extending the month’s decline to 3.7% – we did warn members that September is the historically weakest month of the year! For reference, the worst-performing September of the last decade was 2022, when bond yields also surged higher, and that year the index closed down 7.3%.
