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The ASX went on a round trip today, rising early, giving it all back and trading lower through to midday before popping in the afternoon, closing almost flat for the session. The headline index masked another fairly weak session underneath, with the banks and Healthcare under pressure while Energy and Materials did most of the heavy lifting with the Big Australian and Rio keeping the index afloat accounting for +30pts of gain between the two heavyweights.
September is living up to its seasonally weak reputation, with the ASX 200 falling another 1% on Tuesday to close at a fresh six-week low. Local stocks endured their worst session in three months as selling swept across the market, as more than 65% of the main board closed lower, with the banks doing the most damage, accounting for roughly half of the index’s decline.
The ASX had a rough one today, falling to its lowest close in six weeks in what was the index’s biggest daily fall since June. The sell-off was broad as rising oil prices, weak consumer sentiment and increasingly hawkish RBA expectations weighed on sentiment. There was no lead from Wall St overnight which was closed, and the lull in company-specific news flow continued post reporting season. The rate story was the key drag — RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter flagged the Board may need to lift rates again if inflation proves stronger than forecast, pushing the market-implied chance of a September hike to around 69%, while November is now fully priced while Westpac joined the other big four banks in calling for another hike.
We are making changes to our Active Growth and Active Income Portfolios today.
The ASX 200 endured a choppy Monday before closing +0.1% higher, with the broader market remaining soft, but gains from heavyweights BHP, CBA and Woodside were enough to nudge the index into positive territory. The weekend’s ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz helped the energy sector (+1.8%) dominate the winners’ enclosure. In comparison, the ASX tech sector fell (-2.6%) as tech money moved from software stocks into semiconductors, which the ASX basically has none of.
The ASX 200 started the week slowly, with the U.S session on Friday night largely in the rearview mirror, and closed for tonight, there was little in the tank to drive a move either way as strength across Energy, Materials and the banks was cancelled out by weakness in Technology. The market remains firmly in post-reporting-season mode, with attention shifting back to oil, bond yields and central-bank policy to determine the next move.
Bond markets and central banks are back in focus after Friday night’s August US jobs report came in far stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000—more than triple consensus forecasts—while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Labour-force participation also improved, and prior months were revised higher, reinforcing signs that the jobs market has rebounded from its early-summer softness, shifting attention firmly to this week’s CPI (inflation) data, with the resilient labour market increasing the prospect of a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting.
The ASX 200 slipped 1% last week, with several major names trading ex-dividend, while sharp falls across Technology (-5.2%) and the influential miners (-4.6%) more than offset a return to the winners’ enclosure for Financials (+2%). The market remains in a holding pattern, which we feel is encouraging considering the macro and geopolitical headwinds from rising long-term bond yields to renewed private credit concerns after Bathla Group’s collapse and continued uncertainty around the next twist in the US-Iran conflict.
The ASX 200 struggled to hold onto a positive start on Friday, giving back an early ~0.6% gain to trade slightly lower into the afternoon. The reversal was largely a resources story, with the heavyweight names dragging on the index, while Energy also weighed despite Brent.
The ASX 200 bounced +0.5% on Thursday, regaining some of the previous session’s steep losses as the heavyweight banks, ably supported by the miners, combined to lift the index, not a bad performance with BHP, Coles, Amco and Woodside all trading ex-dividend. To put the banks’ strength into perspective, the Big Four alone accounted for ~50% of the market’s advance on the day.
