Macro Monday: The bulls think they're in Pamplona as the Trump trade resurfaces

The bookies suddenly have Donald Trump as a standout favourite for next month’s election. With two weeks to go, he’s rated ~58% chance to win – it’s still a coin toss to us. However, over recent weeks, equity markets have weighed back into stocks benefitting from a Republican victory after previously swinging towards the Democrats following the Kamala Harris v Donald Trump debate.

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Weekend report 07/02/2026 10:06

Weekend Q&A: Volatility surges & reporting season is only getting started

The ASX 200 ended a volatile week down -1.8%, but it felt far worse on Friday when the index tumbled more than 2% - at least it should recover half of those losses on Monday morning. We received a rate hike last week, but it hardly registered with investors, focusing on three major themes: • The disruption by AI across the software sector, with negative sentiment spreading to tech in general. • Profit-taking in the commodity markets with silver plunging over 16% in just a matter of hours. • Risk off in general with Bitcoin plunging to its lowest level since late 2024.

Afternoon report 06/02/2026 17:25

The Match Out: Market hit ~2% – How MM is thinking about Tech as we end a tough week!

The ASX was hit hard today, with its sharpest fall in nearly three months after heavy losses in US tech overnight, a fresh leg down in commodities and a violent unwind in crypto combined crushed global risk appetite.

Alerts 06/02/2026 09:54

Trade Alerts – Active Growth Portfolio

We are amending the growth portfolio.

Morning report 06/02/2026 09:48

ETF Friday: Looking at the market’s volatility through the eye of an ETF lens

The ASX 200 had a fairly quiet day at the index level, while at the stock/sector level, it was like Guy Fawkes night, with fireworks flying in every direction. Thursday's session saw further aggressive selling across the high-flying resources, while some recently out-of-favour stocks came back into favour as selective bargain hunting played out across the ASX. Perhaps some switching/rotation is taking hold as commodity prices look to cool.

Alerts 05/02/2026 21:08

Trade Alerts – International Equities Portfolio

We are making several changes to the International Equities Portfolio

Afternoon report 05/02/2026 17:21

The Match Out: Volatile Commodities drag Materials stocks & ASX lower

The ASX snapped a two-day winning streak today, with a sharp pullback in commodities weighing heavily on miners and overwhelming broader strength across defensives and financials. Losses were concentrated in materials while money rotated into healthcare, insurers and the major banks, while tech trod water after yesterday's savage sell-off.

Alerts 05/02/2026 10:32

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & Income Portfolios

We are making changes across two portfolios

Morning report 05/02/2026 10:05

What Matters Today: Assessing the risks to incumbent software companies from AI

The ASX 200 rallied 0.8% on Wednesday, but the index wasn’t where the real action was. It was a tale of two sectors: strong buying across the miners, and aggressive selling in software stocks. Concerns around AI disruption reverberated through global markets on Tuesday night, and the local names weren’t spared yesterday; if anything, they magnified the losses with most stocks closing on their intraday low as money poured into the more tangible resources stocks.

Afternoon report 04/02/2026 16:58

The Match Out: ASX rallies with resources & banks firing, but the Tech trade continues to crater

The ASX wavered on the open but ultimately surged higher as a rebound in commodities dragged the market into positive territory, offsetting a sharp sell-off across high-multiple tech stocks which have faced unrelenting pressure on concerns around AI-driven disruption.

Morning report 04/02/2026 09:35

Portfolio Positioning: It’s official, the ASX must swim against the tide of rising rates

The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday, embracing strong gains on Wall Street and a bounce across influential metal stocks, helping the material sector post a 1.5% gain. Interestingly, the embattled tech sector also enjoyed a rare day in the sun, gaining +1.9%. It's not often that an RBA rate hike has to vie for the market's attention, but that was the case yesterday as there was little surprise from Michelle Bullock et al while the precious metal rollercoaster kept riding high - gold traded in a relatively quiet $US330/oz range over the last 24-hours, absurd compared to its historical volatility.