Macro Monday: Step up the RBA – we hope!

It’s no secret that the RBA is expected to cut rates this week, with the futures market calling it an “87% probability.” However, the accompanying rhetoric is likely to drive local stocks in the coming weeks, especially with the market looking for two additional cuts into Christmas, taking the Cash Rate to 3.6%. Local rates have sat at a restrictive 4.35% since November 2023, and we think three cuts are likely to prove too dovish; Michele Bullock’s comments on Tuesday will be a classic case of the devil being in the detail.

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Afternoon report 11/09/2025 17:03

The Match Out: September weakness continues while Gold stocks breakout again

The market gave back some ground today on weakness in banks and healthcare, despite strength across gold and stabilisation for lithium stocks that took a bath yesterday. There was also a host of defense wins across various companies, driving gains in most.

Morning report 11/09/2025 09:33

What Matters Today: Has CATL ended the Lithium recovery?

The ASX200 advanced +0.3% on Wednesday, but the performance was extremely polarised on the stock and sector levels. Less than 45% of the main board advanced, but when the “Big Four Banks” rally an average of more than +1.5%, the index will always be hard to suppress.

Afternoon report 10/09/2025 17:10

The Match Out: ASX creeps higher despite Lithium carnage

Morning report 10/09/2025 09:25

Portfolio Positioning: September is delivering the “wobbles” right on cue

The ASX200 slipped another 0.5% on Tuesday, extending September's retreat to 1.9% as the often weak month follows the seasonality script to a tee. Banking shares led the index fall, with heavyweight CBA worst on ground, closing down 1.3%. Gold stocks continued to shine as the market goes “all in” on a Fed rate cut next week; elsewhere, other rate-sensitive names like the retailers and tech stocks continue to outperform.

Afternoon report 09/09/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX pulls back on bank weakness

Weakness in the banking sector weighed on the local market today, overriding optimism from Wall Street that the Fed is poised to cut rates next week. Gold remained hot with bullion hitting new all-time highs again overnight while there were some select pockets of strength elsewhere, largely amid tech and defensives.

Morning report 09/09/2025 11:53

What Matters Today: Will OPEC continue to weigh on the energy sector?

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise production again next month, highlighting the alliance’s determination to expand supply despite a looming surplus. Crude prices are down more than 10% this year on rising output and weaker demand from a soft Chinese economy and uncertainty courtesy of Trump’s trade war, yet resilience in the market has spurred Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep pushing barrels back online.

Afternoon report 08/09/2025 16:55

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower, market is losing steam

The ASX drifted lower on Monday despite a strong showing from technology, with ex-dividend names and weakness in banks and energy offsetting gains. There was a defensive undertone to the session – aside from strength in tech and lithium it wasn’t enough to outweigh pressure in banks and energy. Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag – a trend we’ve written about in recent notes. The market more broadly continues to oscillate around the 8850 level, with breadth softening.

Morning report 08/09/2025 09:03

Macro Monday: Will the “Goldilocks Scenario” prevail for stocks?

U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month as unemployment climbed to its highest level since 2021, raising fears the labour market may be entering a deeper downturn. Hiring was once again led by health care, but outside that sector, total employment has fallen in three of the past four months.

Weekend report 06/09/2025 08:18

Weekend Q&A: US Jobs Report raises more questions than it delivers answers

The ASX200 was whacked 160-points on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected GDP figures tempered rate cut expectations, but by Friday’s close, the market had recovered over 80% of the fall. Nerves increased throughout the week into Friday night's pivotal US Job Report, but after the release, markets remained uncertain as Fed rate cuts looked a given following the weak numbers, but concerns started to percolate around the health of the US economy.

Afternoon report 05/09/2025 17:23

The Match Out: ASX grinds higher in a ‘quiet’ session

The ASX moved higher on Friday though it was one of quietest sessions in recent memory trading in a narrow ~15pt range beyond the open, with next to no news flow to drive individual share prices in the wake of the blockbuster reporting season just gone.