Macro Monday: Step up the RBA – we hope!

It’s no secret that the RBA is expected to cut rates this week, with the futures market calling it an “87% probability.” However, the accompanying rhetoric is likely to drive local stocks in the coming weeks, especially with the market looking for two additional cuts into Christmas, taking the Cash Rate to 3.6%. Local rates have sat at a restrictive 4.35% since November 2023, and we think three cuts are likely to prove too dovish; Michele Bullock’s comments on Tuesday will be a classic case of the devil being in the detail.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Alerts 16/09/2025 09:59

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & International Equities Portfolio

We are amending two portfolios this morning.

Morning report 16/09/2025 09:46

What Matters Today: Is it time to fade the weakness in the global healthcare sector?

The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday as investors continued to “buy the dip”, allowing the market to recover from an initial 0.8% fall. The winners managed to outnumber the losers on the main board, but weakness in heavyweights CBA, BHP and CSL was enough to drag the index into negative territory, albeit just.

Afternoon report 15/09/2025 17:19

The Match Out: ASX sells off early, rallies to narrow losses

The local market kicked things off on the backfoot down ~60pts before it flipped the switch straight after the open and reversed most of the losses though couldn’t claw its way back to positive territory. Profit-taking in gold stocks and weakness in healthcare kept the ASX in the red despite strength across lithium names.

Morning report 15/09/2025 09:16

Macro Monday: The Fed takes centre stage this week

The S&P 500 has surged more than 30% from its April lows, fuelled by expectations that the Fed will cut rates several times this year, with a 25-basis-point move widely seen as a certainty on Wednesday.

Weekend report 13/09/2025 09:05

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 drifts while US indices post fresh all-time highs

The ASX200 ended last week largely flat, holding September's current pullback to 1.2%. It may have been a quiet week on the index level, but it wasn’t on the sector level, with solid gains by the rate-sensitive tech, real estate, and utilities sectors while the energy sector fell 4.5% as OPEC+ maintained its elevated supply. It was disappointing to see the local index drift while US indices punched higher, although a number of majors trading ex-dividend did weigh locally. The heavyweight miners slipped slightly after mining giants Anglo American / Teck Resources agreed to merge, forming a ~$53 billion copper powerhouse.

Afternoon report 12/09/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX finishes the week strong, banks and financials rally

The ASX had a solid end to the week, with a broad-based rally following on from Wall Street’s record-setting session overnight. Expectations that the Fed will move on rate cuts as soon as next week helped fuel gains in financials and miners, while gold continued its charge toward fresh highs, offsetting weakness across the energy names.

Morning report 12/09/2025 09:38

ETF Friday: Looking at three ‘vanilla’ equity ETFs traded on the ASX

The ASX 200 retreated 0.3% on Thursday, with the losses in the banking sector catching the eye after Bendigo (BEN) became the third bank this week to announce job cuts.

Afternoon report 11/09/2025 17:03

The Match Out: September weakness continues while Gold stocks breakout again

The market gave back some ground today on weakness in banks and healthcare, despite strength across gold and stabilisation for lithium stocks that took a bath yesterday. There was also a host of defense wins across various companies, driving gains in most.

Morning report 11/09/2025 09:33

What Matters Today: Has CATL ended the Lithium recovery?

The ASX200 advanced +0.3% on Wednesday, but the performance was extremely polarised on the stock and sector levels. Less than 45% of the main board advanced, but when the “Big Four Banks” rally an average of more than +1.5%, the index will always be hard to suppress.

Afternoon report 12/09/2025 16:40

The Match Out: ASX creeps higher despite Lithium carnage

The ASX edged higher into the afternoon session, though the overall tone remained mixed as gains in the financials were offset by heavy selling across the resource complex, particularly the Lithium stocks as a Chinese mine restart is now set to happen sooner than expected.