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A200
MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 8900
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IVV
MM remains bullish towards the S&P 500 around 7500
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SOXX US
MM is cautiously bullish toward the SOX Index around 11,000
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CCJ US
MM remains long & bullish CCJ US
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NDQ
MM is bullish towards the EURO STOXX 50 around 6300
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MM is now neutral towards US 30-year bonds
IAF
MM is cautiously bullish towards Australian 10s (yields lower)
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OOO
MM is neutral towards Brent Crude around US$90
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MM is bullish towards uranium around the US$86 level
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WIRE
MM remains bullish towards copper ~US$13,800/MT
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YANK
MM is neutral towards the yen around 157
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FLT
Trade Idea: Buy Flight Centre (FLT) using a limit of $13.40, with stops at $12.50, around 7% risk.
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MM is neutral to bearish towards the Australian housing market into Christmas.

Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Copper stocks set for another big session

The ASX 200 enjoyed a more broad-based advance on Tuesday, with 70% of the main board closing higher, pushing the index up +0.7%. The banks finally gave the index a helping hand, but they still couldn’t figure in the top 3 stocks contributing to the market's 62-point advance; the podium was headed by BHP, again (+9 points), followed by CSL (+7-points), and Suncorp (+5-points). Elsewhere, we saw some profit-taking creep into the high-flying gold sector while the tech stocks more than picked up the slack, taking their cue from a reversal higher by the semiconductor-driven Korean KOSPI Index.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX rises as ARB surges on result, insurers jump on Tokio Marine takeover speculation

The ASX 200 put together one of its better sessions in recent weeks as the market built on Monday’s gains and breadth improved markedly. Ten of the 11 sectors finished higher with Healthcare continuing its rebound, now 44% above its low set back in June. Financials were also notably stronger, finally delivering their first meaningful bounce in around two weeks after falling almost 10% across the previous 12 sessions. BHP hit yet another record high, as weakness across lithium, rare earths, gold and parts of the iron ore complex offset strength in the diversified miners and copper exposures.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Kazatomprom just reignited the Uranium Trade?

The ASX 200 rallied +0.5% on Monday to close just above the psychological 9100 level, but it wasn't all plain sailing with less than 55% of the main board closing higher. The story remained consistent on the sector front, with the gains by the materials (+61 points) minus the financials (-21 points) almost exactly equalling the day's +44-point net advance. The miners remain the driving force of the ASX, and the reason we’ve recently been outperforming the US, especially since the Treasury pledged support to try and rein in long-dated US bond yields. BHP Group (BHP) grabbed the headlines on Monday, posting new all-time highs, but there were plenty of standout performances amongst the big miners.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX rises as BHP hits a record high and Materials surge

The local market started the week on stronger footing today, rallying sharply at midday before giving back some of the gains through the afternoon. The move was overwhelmingly driven by Resources, hitting a fresh all-time high as copper, lithium, uranium, gold and iron ore names rallied together as BHP pushed to a record high.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: Washington “needs” cheaper money & it’s great for our miners!

Last week saw Scott Bessent emerge as one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in financial markets in decades, putting his and the Treasury's credibility on the line in an effort to combat the damaging rise in US borrowing costs. On Wednesday, just two weeks after releasing its schedule for buying back older Treasury securities, the Treasury Department announced it would “at least double” its planned purchases of outstanding 10-year to 30-year debt.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The miners are poised to surge higher on Monday

The ASX 200 slipped 0.6% last week despite stellar gains by the healthcare (+9.2%) and materials (+5.6%) sectors, as the “Big Four Banks” continued to weigh heavily on the local index. We're three weeks into August and reporting season is going “ok”, but the polarisation between the miners and banks remains entrenched: the miners are rallying with strength in copper and gold while the banks are struggling, being hit with the trifecta of a crunch in housing activity, net interest margin compression, and rising risks of bad debts - as Led Zeppelin famously sang in the 70’s “The Song Remains the Same.”

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX lower as healthcare and REITs drag; GYG shines and gold miners hold firm

The ASX 200 finished lower today taking the weekly decline to around 0.6% as the market gave back part of Thursday’s rebound. The index traded in a relatively narrow range through the day, but underneath the surface the tone remained patchy, with Real Estate, Technology and Consumer Discretionary doing most of the damage while Financials finally managed to stabilise after a very weak run.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

ETF Friday: Will ETFs exacerbate the weakness in the “Big Four Banks”

The ASX 200 closed up +0.3% on Thursday with the resources, ably supported by tech, finally able to offset weakness from the banks, ending a six-day losing streak. On the day, the materials sector added 85-points to the ASX 200 while the financial sector caused a 57-point drag, big numbers when we consider the index only closed up +30-points. The polarisation in performance through August between the banks and miners has been almost unparalleled.

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Despite a volatile month, the ASX 200 ended July up +2.3%, delivering almost exactly its average return over the past 20 years as the market heads into August.  As we all know, there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics”, but keeping it simple, as the chart below illustrates, July is usually a very strong month for the local index:

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