Macro Monday: Commodities turning lower adds to market headwinds

Equities have really struggled since the short squeeze/optimism fuelled 2-month rally that ran out of momentum in mid-August, in just 3-weeks the US S&P500 has fallen by -9.7%. It’s very easy to blame Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric from Jackson hole for the decline but stocks were already slipping before he spoke and they’ve extended the declines afterwards with the Resources Sector compounding local losses following Chinas lockdown of Chengdu, another drastic attempt by Beijing to achieve Covid-Zero that feels capable of spreading to other cities. It’s very important that subscribers…

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Weekend report 26/07/2025 13:47

CORRECTWeekend Q&A: The ASX200 is feeling “soft” as we approach August & September

The ASX200 slipped 1% last week, eroding 40% of July's gains as the RBA took the shine off the local market even as global indices pushed to fresh highs, i.e. the US S&P 500 advanced +1.5% last week. The S&P 500 notched its 5th straight record weekly closing high, courtesy of more than 80% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported to date have beaten Wall Street’s expectations. In Australia, it's been a more mixed and polarised affair on the reporting front, but with the “Big Four Banks” retreating on average close to 4% the ASX was always going to struggle to match its overseas peers.

Afternoon report 25/07/2025 17:05

The Match Out: Stocks end the week lower; Resources join Banks in the sell-off

The ASX put in a weaker session seeing sustained selling through the day, as softer iron ore prices weighed on the materials space. With heavyweight resources and the big banks down, the index was fighting a losing battle from start to finish, though we still managed to close higher for the week.

Alerts 25/07/2025 09:54

Trade Alert – Growth & Emerging Companies Portfolio

MM is adding to an existing position

Morning report 25/07/2025 09:47

ETF Friday: Is it too late to buy three “off the beaten track” Top Performing ETFs?

The ASX 200 keeps teasing us with a significant breakout on the upside before gains are tempered by macro &/or geopolitical news. On Thursday, it was the RBA with Michele Bullock delivering a less dovish speech than hoped by many, warning that underlying inflation may not fall as quickly as anticipated, signalling that an interest rate cut next month is not guaranteed - futures markets are still pricing it as a certainty, with a 40% chance of a third before Christmas.

Afternoon report 24/07/2025 17:29

The Match Out: ASX loses steam, Macquarie (MQG) underwhelms

A softer session across the ASX today despite the positive session in the US overnight, and US Futures remained solid during our time zone, inline with other Asian markets bar our own. We were a bit of an anomaly today.

Morning report 24/07/2025 09:38

What Matters Today: Will the recovery by US homebuilders flow into the ASX?

The ASX200 rallied +0.7% on Wednesday, closing back above 8700 and within 0.4% of its all-time high. Buying was broad-based, with over 70% of the index closing higher. Although Paladin (PDN) and Telix Pharma (TLX) delivered a couple of negative surprises, bullish sentiment continued to prevail with all of the big names from banks to resources advancing.

Afternoon report 23/07/2025 17:43

The Match Out: Banks bounce, Resources run as ASX moves up

The index climbed steadily higher throughout the day with the resources rally continuing and banks rebounding after two days of moving in opposite directions. With CBA closing ~10% off its recent highs yesterday, it was a matter of time until buyers returned, though ANZ was the pick of the bunch in the Big Four.

Income Report: Asset allocation framework when targeting income

Morning report 23/07/2025 10:37

Portfolio Positioning: Iron Ore for growth & yield as it tops $US100

The ASX200 struggled to close up +0.1% on Tuesday, with over 40% of the main board closing lower, and notable weakness in the influential banking sector.

Afternoon report 22/07/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, Resources & Healthcare lead

While it was quiet session from an index perspective, we saw further sector rotation sweep through the ASX with Materials outperforming Financials by ~4%, and if we look at the last 5 trading sessions, that divergence extends to ~7%. Resources are running as the market consolidates its recent breakout above 8600.

Morning report 22/07/2025 11:08

What Matters Today: Should we follow Warren Buffett out of the banks?

The ASX200 closed down more than 1% on Monday, enduring its worst drop in three months. The last two trading days have seen similar see-saw action to a pair of days in early April, hopefully it's not a precursor of the volatility ahead!