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Global Macro ETF Portfolio

For those looking to invest in our top macro calls via ETFs

About the Global Macro ETF Portfolio

About the Portfolio

The Market Matters Global Macro ETF Portfolio is designed to track our top 10 global macro calls, and provide avenues to trade them via ASX and internationally listed Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s)

Portfolio Performance
Portfolio 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y pa Inception pa*
Global Macro ETF -1.10% -3.77% -0.76% 15.79% - 10.78%
Target 10% 0.83% 2.50% 5.00% 10.00% - 10.00%
Difference -1.93% -6.27% -5.76% +5.79% - +0.78%
* Inception date 03/07/2019
Portfolio Holdings trade now
COMPANY CODE STOCK NAME WEIGHT (%) RISK TIME HORIZON ENTRY DATE ENTRY PRICE ($) LAST PRICE ($) DIVIDENDS ($) GAIN / LOSS (%)
ASIA BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF 10 High Medium 16/07/2021 10.92 10.23 -6.32
AUDS BetaShares Strong Australian D 10 High Medium 03/07/2019 11.76 9.52 1.65 -5.02
DBA US Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (USD) (USD) 10 Moderate Medium 25/02/2020 16.74 18.54 10.75
FUEL BetaShares Global Energy Companies ETF 10 Moderate Medium 08/09/2021 4.23 4.17 -1.42
IEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 10 Moderate Short 25/10/2019 63.23 70.84 2.73 16.35
MNRS Betashares Global Gold Miners 10 Moderate Medium 05/05/2021 6.55 5.81 0.18 -8.55
TBF US Proshares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (USD) 10 Moderate Medium 08/09/2021 16.34 16.14 -1.22
ULE US ProShares Ultra Euro ETF(USD) 10 High Medium 13/09/2021 14.48 14.54 0.41
VGK US Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (USD) (USD) 10 Moderate Medium 11/11/2020 58.05 69.34 1.16 21.45
Portfolio cash position: 10%
Recent Sales trade now
Company code STOCK NAME WEIGHT(%) RISK TIME HORIZON ENTRY DATE ENTRY PRICE ($) CLOSE PRICE ($) DIVIDENDS ($) GAIN / LOSS (%)
VXX US iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Sho (USD) 10 Moderate Short 8/04/2021 40.61 26.04 -35.88
ETPMAG ETFS Metal Securities Australi 10 Moderate Medium 12/08/2020 32.13 31 -3.52
BBUS BetaShares US Equities Strong 10 High Medium 29/04/2021 11.1 9.45 -14.86
ATEC BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian 10 Moderate Medium 9/06/2021 22.1 25 0.67 16.15
QQQ US Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (USD) 10 Moderate Medium 22/09/2020 270 330.14 0.56 23.26
BNKS BetaShares Global Banks ETF - 10 Moderate Medium 25/10/2019 6.65 6.64 0.07 0.9
FUEL Betashares Global Energy Compa 10 High Medium 22/04/2020 3.25 4.25 0.13 34.77
COPX US Global X Copper Miners ETF (USD) 10 Moderate Short 10/03/2021 17.73 36.39 0.45 107.78
TBF US ProShares Short 20+ Year Treas (USD) 10 Moderate Medium 10/03/2021 17.56 17.65 0.04 0.74
SVXY US ProShares Short VIX Short Term 10 High Short 3/12/2020 30.19 41.16 36.34
SLVP US iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners 5 Moderate Medium 28/05/2020 11.35 12.01 0.19 7.49
QQQ US Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 5 Moderate Medium 22/05/2020 204.89 228.87 11.70
GDX Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners 7.5 Moderate Medium 25/02/2020 35.84 46.72 0.23 31.00
SH US ProShares Short S&P500 8 High Medium 25/02/2020 26.44 23.99 0.2 -8.51
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Opinions for positions held in the Global Macro ETF Portfolio

3 “elastic bands” MM are monitoring closely

In Wednesdays Portfolio Positioning Report we illustrated the logic behind our bullish stance towards global energy names into 2022 with the disconnect between the underlying crude price and oil stocks feeling like it’s become way too stretched even if we are seeing a strong ESG move by mandated fund managers.

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Crude Oil ($US/barrel)

Overnight crude oil advanced another 2.9% to withing striking distance of fresh multi-year highs. The Energy Sector hasn’t been a believer in the underlying commodities rally in 2021 but we feel the 18% advance in just 4-weeks should become too much for investors to ignore.

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US 30-year Bond Yield

The weak CPI print overnight sent US bond yields to the lower end of their recent trading range with the longer dated 30-years feeling poised to plumb fresh 2021 lows, not a move we believe will follow through but it is likely to create a headwind for the $US and subsequent tailwind for the Resources Sector.

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Currencies

The $A is finding some teeth just as many of us are again contemplating overseas holidays, a relief to many who have already seen their overseas spending money fall by ~10% in 2021. At MM we are bullish the $A looking for a solid breach of 80c in the coming years however short term another test of 70c feels like a ~30% possibility, a similar feel to bond yields over the coming weeks.

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Chart of the Week

As most of us know the Aussie Dollar along with copper is largely regarded as the perfect proxy for growth and over the last fortnight it’s rallied strongly embracing Gladys  vaccine led reopening strategy although weakness in the $US has certainly assisted the move. We remain bullish the $A into 2022 targeting the 85-90c area and our “Gut Feel” is the local currency...

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US 30-year Bond Yields

We can extrapolate the picture even further out in time when we look at US 30-year bond yields which are trading under 2% yet the average return of the ASX over the last 40 odd years is above 11% including dividends, while for its more direct relative the Dow it’s just shy of 11% over both 30 & 50-years i.e. with bond yields at current levels the equity...

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Global Macro ETF Portfolio

The portfolio slipped -0.49% over the past week and -1.07% through August although the only position to move by over 5% in the last week of August was our volatility position (VXX US) which fell -5.3%.  Again no major change here with most positions quiet through the week and we maintain the same plans moving forward as we look to tidy this portfolio...

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The Australian Dollar

The Aussie along with copper is largely regarded as the perfect proxy for global growth and in-line with bond yields and the $US it bounced strongly last week. Our view is consistent here, we are looking for an eventual test of 90c in 2022 but whether we’ve now seen the bottom of its pullback from ~80c is still 50-50.

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Actions for positions held in the Global Macro ETF Portfolio

FUEL
UPDATED 17/09/2021 09:02
MM remains bullish crude oil & related stocks
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TBF US
UPDATED 17/09/2021 08:59
MM is bullish bond yields medium term
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AUDS
UPDATED 14/09/2021 09:18
MM’s is bullish the $A medium-term
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FUEL
UPDATED 09/09/2021 09:04
MM is looking to buy the FUEL ETF for exposure to a cheap Energy Sector and reflation moving forward
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TBF US
UPDATED 09/09/2021 09:04
MM is looking to buy the TBF ETF for exposure to rising bond yields
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ASIA
UPDATED 08/09/2021 12:06
MM are adding to ASIA in the Global ETF Portfolio Portfolio, allocating a further 5% around $10.71
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FUEL
UPDATED 08/09/2021 11:41
MM are buying FUEL in the Macro ETF Portfolio, allocating 10% around $4.23
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TBF US
UPDATED 08/09/2021 11:41
MM are buying TBF in the Macro ETF Portfolio, allocating 10% around $US16.40
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AUDS
UPDATED 06/09/2021 10:04
MM’s is bullish the $A medium-term
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FUEL
UPDATED 02/09/2021 09:06
In the near future MM is looking to switch between the local ETF’s ATEC and FUEL
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