The $US Dolar

An interesting technical picture is playing out in the US Dollar at the moment:

The chart highlights that positioning often leads price. Aggregate long US dollar positioning peaked alongside the 2015 high in the DXY near 100, while the 2022 Fed tightening cycle saw both positioning and the dollar index surge together before reversing sharply after the DXY reached ~115. Today, however, there is a notable divergence: speculative US dollar longs have climbed sharply through 2026, yet the DXY remains well below its previous highs, suggesting the market is heavily positioned for further strength without price confirmation—a setup that could leave the dollar vulnerable if those crowded long positions begin to unwind.

• We can see the Greenback struggling at current levels, as traders get more bullish into recent strength. This is another bullish read for commodities.