Back in mid-2021 US engineering software giant Autodesk (ADSK US) walked away from its $5.25bn / $40 tilt at ALU after the two companies couldn’t agree on a price – the initial written bid was at $38.50 but the US company claimed they offered $40 verbally and still failed to gain traction. This is one deal we believe has gone cold but ALU remains a quality tech company with a very strong growth outlook ahead, and importantly, a track record of executing on their stated plans, our only real concern and this drive our recent sale is around valuation – we believe ALU is fully priced.
- With ADSK’s shares down over 40% from their 2021 peak we believe it’s unlikely they will mount another aggressive takeover bid for ALU which would probably now need to be priced above $45.
MM is neutral towards ALU around $38.50
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