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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 9.07 Fair value 11.28 One-star price 14.03
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (9.07) to the one-star price (14.03).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 12.07 |
| Price - 12 month high | 12.14 |
| Price - 12 month low | 7.25 |
| Pricing date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 5.72 |
| Market capitalization | 8,155.05 |
| 12 Month High price date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 13 MAR 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.87 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.84% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 21.43% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 38.74% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 2.64% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 31.77% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 28.27% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 20.82% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.575 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.575 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 64.500 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 3.650 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 3.650 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 5.944 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 5.944 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 5.282 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 5.282 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.995 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.995 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.314 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 2.314 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.315 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.683 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.683 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.736 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.736 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 2.313 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 21.01 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 0.19 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.31 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 2.29 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 5.22 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 5.22 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 2.03 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 34.64 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 11.92 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 5,731.60 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 907.60 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 3.50% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.61% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.61% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 1,888.50 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 39.08% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 157.90% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 1,888.50 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 2,979.50 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 2,979.50 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 674.20 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 674.20 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 505.60 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 505.60 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 674.20 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 64.50 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 15.74% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 15.74% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 22.63% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 22.63% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 14.12% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 55.15% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 63.38% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 9.98% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 1.32% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 1.32% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 11.69% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 11.69% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 0.92% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 7.44% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 1.35% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -1.85% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 9.08% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 2.68% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 6.60% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 17.78% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 0.88% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
CGF +19.29%: Reported a strong 1Q27, with strong sales and annuity flows, with the update coming alongside an $11.80 per share offer from Daiichi Life’s for the remaining 79.5% of the company, a ~20% premium to Friday’s closing price.
I (James) was on Livewire’s Buy Hold Sell a couple of weeks ago with Matthew Kidman and Jun Bei Liu from TenCap. We were asked to pitch an income stock we liked here and now — (the episode is here for those interested). I pitched Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW) which we had recently bought in the Market Matters Income Portfolio, while JBL chose Challenger.
The provider of retirement income products and annuities, complemented by a growing funds management business has delivered for investors through 2025, surging almost 50% when many other ASX fund managers have struggled.
We covered CGF in detail in late April targeting the $8 area, exactly where we are now. In June we saw Dai-Chi Life buy an additional 4.8% stake in CGF, taking its voting power to 19.9% raising speculation of a bid by Dai-ichi who have a history of initiating with minority stakes before pursuing full acquisitions.
CGF was a market darling about eight years ago, but as so often happens, when too many people become bullish, the wheels can fall off. In the case of CGF, this was dramatic, with the stock falling 80% in less than three years.
CGF –8.97%: We’ve been consistently cautious on CGF given the complexity in their book that underpins the annuity liabilities, and today was another reminder of why this stance remains on point, with lower margins hurting todays result;
Previous market darling CGF is unchanged so far in 2024, similar to the last few years. CGF recently reported its 3Q24 sales and flows. Life net flows were below forecasts, whilst Funds Under Management (FUM) was surprisingly strong, with flows in both divisions relying less on the low-margin institutional segment.
CGF slipped -2% on Thursday, posting fresh 52-week lows in the process, although the stocks traded sideways since mid-2021. While we would expect CGF to enjoy a favourable annuity sales backdrop based on the ability to offer customers higher returns (as yields have risen on the fixed income investments that underpin their annuity book).
Financial services provider CGF rallied +4.41% yesterday after the company reaffirmed guidance, in our opinion a sign of how little confidence the market had in the company meeting their numbers. This once-market darling is still trading 47% below its 2018 high, not a great result considering the ASX200 has rallied more than +20% over the same time, and that’s before we even consider dividends.
CGF +4.41%: the investment manager posted a reasonable set of 1H numbers, headlined by a small beat at the profit line as higher interest rates create a tailwind for their core annuity offering. Net Profit Before Tax (NPBT) was a small beat at $250m.
MM is cautiously bullish CGF
MM is mildly bullish CGF ~$9.80
MM is neutral towards CGF ~$9
MM is cautiously bullish towards CGF
MM is now bullish toward CGF
MM remains neutral at best on CGF
MM is neutral towards CGF
MM is neutral towards CGF
MM is neutral / positive CGF
MM is neutral CGF around $7.50
Challenger's core business is selling annuity products in the Australian retirement market and, since November 2016, selling Australian dollar-denominated annuities into Japan's large retirement market. The firm's annuity products provide investors guaranteed regular payments over an agreed term for an upfront lump sum investment, and are designed primarily to protect investors from the longevity risk of outliving their savings. Challenger also operates a funds management business, Challenger Investment Management, which primarily manages investments supporting its annuities business. In addition, Challenger holds a 45% minority stake in Channel Group, the merged entity of Fidante Partners and Channel Capital.
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