Shawn’s Trade Idea: Nick Scali (ASX: NCK)
In line with our view that the next move by the RBA is down the likes of NCK should enjoy at least a healthy bounce after more than halving from its 2026 high.
Nick Scali (NCK)
NCK $13.88
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Performance
Advanced charting functionality with the ability to amend timeframes, chart type & indicator selection, powered by TradingView.
Share price activity
Displays share price activity. Volume = number of shares traded, Turnover = value of shares traded, VWAP = volume-weighted average price for the day, sourced from Morningstar.
- Last (Price)
- 13.88
- Change
- ▼ -0.02 (-0.14)
- Bid / Ask
- 13.86 - 13.88
- Volume
- 314,352
- Turnover
- 4,327,077
- Open
- 14.00
- Day Range
- 13.55 - 14.01
- VWAP
- 13.77
- Prev Close
- 13.90
- Last Trade
- 12/11 4:10pm
Key information
Displays key information on the security, sourced from Morningstar.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Shares Issued
- 85,530,699
- NTA/Share
- 1.36
- Last Dividend
- 0.39
- Dividend Ex Date
- 30 SEP 2026
- Dividend Pay Date
- 22 OCT 2026
Current (AUD) · FY2026
Displays key financial data for the most recent fiscal year, in millions. Note - Per share data is in local currency terms irrespective of reporting currency, and may be different to the stated currency, sourced from Morningstar.
- Revenue
- 516.70
- EBITDA
- 180.66
- Profit
- 75.68
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.89
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.72
- Yield %
- 5.49
- Market Cap
- 1,187.17
- Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)
- 15.68
Estimates (AUD) · FY2027
Displays consensus analyst’s estimates for key measures for the next fiscal year, sourced from Morningstar.
- Revenue
- 482.80
- EBITDA
- —
- Profit
- 56.30
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- 0.66
- Dividend Per Share (DPS)
- 0.50
Quantitative rating
Displays Morningstar’s Quantitative Equity Research Rating for the security: a star rating from 1 (overvalued) to 5 (undervalued) from the share price against a fair value estimated by a statistical model of Morningstar’s analyst ratings, with the model’s economic moat, financial health and fair value uncertainty, sourced from Morningstar.
Undervalued
- Economic Moat
- None
- Financial Health
- Moderate
- Uncertainty
- High
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Fair value estimate
Displays Morningstar’s quantitative fair value estimate for the security against the current share price, with the band around it: the five-star price below which the model would rate the stock five stars and the one-star price above which it would rate it one star, sourced from Morningstar.
Five-star price 14.33 Fair value 17.65 One-star price 21.74
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Quantitative valuation
Displays where the share price sits in Morningstar’s quantitative fair value band, from the five-star price (undervalued) to the one-star price (overvalued), with the fair value estimate, the price to fair value ratio, the model’s valuation label and its uncertainty rating, sourced from Morningstar.
Buy
Sell
- Fair Value
- 17.65
- Price / Fair Value
- 0.80
- Valuation
- Undervalued
- Uncertainty
- High
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (14.33) to the one-star price (21.74).
Displays useful ratios for the security, NB the pricing date used, sourced from Morningstar.
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
Price, volume and trading statistics for the security, sourced from Morningstar.
| Price - closing or last bid | 14.20 |
| Price - 12 month high | 26.08 |
| Price - 12 month low | 10.93 |
| Pricing date | 5 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.75 |
| Market capitalization | 1,214.54 |
| 12 Month High price date | 27 JAN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 22 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.45 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -0.91% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -15.22% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -1.87% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 14.52% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -43.74% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -39.75% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 2.08% |
Earnings, dividends, cash flow and book value per share, sourced from Morningstar.
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.885 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.885 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.871 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 6.041 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 6.041 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.271 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.271 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.359 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 1.359 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.246 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.246 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.762 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.762 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.780 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 2.112 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.885 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.885 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.885 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.885 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.493 |
Valuation multiples such as P/E, price to sales, price to book and enterprise value ratios, sourced from Morningstar.
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 16.05 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 16.31 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 2.35 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 10.45 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 9.51 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 8.06 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 4.34 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 38.10 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 13.59 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 240.08 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 243.47 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 4.71% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 5.89% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 5.49% |
Cash flow, liquidity and leverage measures, sourced from Morningstar.
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 127.74 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 94.31% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 125.13% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 102.17% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 119.34% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 127.74 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
Key income statement lines for the most recent fiscal year, in millions, sourced from Morningstar.
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 516.70 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 516.70 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 180.66 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 180.66 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 110.21 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 110.21 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 75.68 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 75.68 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 108.45 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.87 |
Profitability margins for the most recent fiscal year, sourced from Morningstar.
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 14.65% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 14.65% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 23.43% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 23.43% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 21.33% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 21.33% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 25.62% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 23.31% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 20.61% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 24.72% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 16.08% |
Returns on average assets and equity for the fiscal year, the trailing 12 months and as 5 year averages, and net income and revenue per employee in whole currency, sourced from Morningstar.
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 10.44% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 10.44% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 27.54% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 27.54% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 12.86% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 44.76% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
Growth in revenue, earnings, dividends and book value over recent periods, sourced from Morningstar.
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 6.73% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -3.18% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -1.35% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 5.58% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 0.59% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -10.83% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 18.37% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 8.01% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 2.63% |
Displays analyst’s forecasts for key measures. The estimates can be expanded to see the spread of the calls. Full lines = reported, and dotted lines are forward estimates. Click a measure to add or remove it from the chart, sourced from Morningstar.
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financial metrics can be plotted on the graph to see trends. Multiple metrics from multiple statements can be plotted against each other, sourced from Morningstar.
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Displays all company announcements released by the company to the exchange, sourced from Morningstar.
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Opinion
Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) $12.03
NCK –15.34%: delivered a disappointing trading update showing signs of weakness across Australia and New Zealand, flagging a material downgrade to first-half earnings expectations.
Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) $14.13
Nick Scali (NCK) has had a difficult run since its FY26 result, with the stock now back around $14 as investors remain cautious on the Australian consumer and housing cycle.We own NCK in the Emerging Companies Portfolio and, while the domestic environment remains soft, we think the market is becoming increasingly focused on the wrong part of the story.
Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) $17.11
NCK -0.7%: delivered a solid FY26 result, with profit broadly in line with expectations and a stronger dividend, although the domestic trading backdrop remains challenging as softer housing conditions and cost-of-living pressure weigh on big-ticket spending.
Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) $16.35
Nick Scali has been under pressure since a weak trading update in January with a soft consumer the primary issue, however, it's found solid valuation support in recent months, in line with the overall sector. NCK is a classic interest rate-sensitive discretionary retailer. As a seller of high-ticket furniture, demand is closely linked to consumer confidence and housing activity, both of which have been under pressure following the three RBA rate hikes and dive in the property market following the latest budget. NCK is effectively a leveraged play on the RBA easing cycle, with earnings and the share price typically benefiting as monetary policy becomes more accommodative, and vice versa.
Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $13.77
Nick Scali has basically halved in 2026 with Januarys result delivering most of the losses, discussed here. At the time their 1H result was a healthy beat but they set the scene for retail as it was accompanied by a cautious outlook - on the money in hindsight. However, this is a great business that’s expanding well across the UK, and it's noticeable that its downside momentum is slowing, even as global bond yields surge higher.
Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $16.01
We discussed NCK las month after a soft January update saw the stock slide lower - Here. The update raised concerns about slowing discretionary demand, despite a better-than-expected 1H result. The market is focused on weaker forward sales, with modest growth suggesting the 2H26 order book may miss expectations as higher rates and demand pull-forward weigh on the shares/sector.
Portfolio Amendments – Emerging Companies Portfolio
We are making several changes to the Emerging Companies Portfolio
Nick Scali (NCK) $18.43
Nick Scali (NCK) has now corrected 35% from its 2026 high after a soft January trading update raised concerns about near-term demand for big-ticket items as interest rates rise. There 1H result was better than expected but the market looked through the numbers focusing on the next chapter.
Nick Scali (NCK) $18.48
NCK -22.32%: Delivered a better-than-expected 1H result, but the stock was sold hard after a softer January trading update raised concerns about near-term demand for big-ticket items as interest rates rise.1H numbers:
Action
Updated
09/11/2026
09:42
NCK
Updated 09/11/2026 09:42
Trade Idea: Buy Nick Scali (NCK) using a limit of $14.50, with stops at $13.00 around 10% risk.
Updated
22/10/2026
16:55
NCK
Updated 22/10/2026 16:55
MM is long but cautious toward NCK
Updated
07/10/2026
10:10
NCK
Updated 07/10/2026 10:10
MM remains bullish NCK ~$14
Updated
07/08/2026
17:38
NCK
Updated 07/08/2026 17:38
MM remains long & bullish NCK
Updated
30/07/2026
09:50
NCK
Updated 30/07/2026 09:50
MM is long and bullish towards NCK around $16
Updated
21/05/2026
10:11
NCK
Updated 21/05/2026 10:11
MM is long and bullish on NCK below $14
Updated
26/03/2026
10:10
NCK
Updated 26/03/2026 10:10
MM is bullish toward NCK around $16
Updated
24/03/2026
09:55
NCK
Updated 24/03/2026 09:55
MM is adding to NCK in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, increasing to a 5% portfolio weight around $16
Updated
24/02/2026
09:50
NCK
Updated 24/02/2026 09:50
MM is bullish on NCK around $18
Updated
13/02/2026
18:02
NCK
Updated 13/02/2026 18:02
MM remains long and bullish NCK in the Emerging Companies Portfolio
Business Summary
Nick Scali Ltd is engaged in the sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories. The company has two reportable segments being the retailing of furniture in Australia and New Zealand as well as the United Kingdom. The company generates majority of revenue from Australia and New Zealand.
WATCH
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish discussing the retail sector with a focus on Harvey Norman (HVN), Nick Scali (NCK), & Wesfarmers (WES)
Recorded Wednesday 1st March
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish discussing the retail sector with a focus on Harvey Norman (HVN), Nick Scali (NCK), & Wesfarmers (WES)
Recorded Wednesday 1st March
Video
WATCH
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish discussing the retail sector with a focus on Harvey Norman (HVN), Nick Scali (NCK), & Wesfarmers (WES)
Recorded Wednesday 1st March
01/03/2023 14:47
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