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Navigator NGI performance v share price

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Navigator NGI performance v share price

Hello MM Would appreciate your thoughts on the recent performance of Navigator and its increasing FUM balances versus its share price weakness. Is there a disconnect between these fundamentals? Thanks and regards Rob

Answer

Hi Rob,

For the benefit of other subscribers, Navigator Global Investments is an ASX-listed alternative asset management company that owns all or minority stakes of various alternative asset managers, akin to Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI).

As you rightly point out, the FUM growth has been solid, though the share price has been weak down ~35% from recent highs in January of this year.

Partner firm AUM reached more than US$104bn at 30 June, up 24% over the year, including the 17 managers acquired from US asset-manager Stable, with the network now deploying more than US$120bn across various funds.

Three things explain most of the share price underperformance:

  • Lumpy distributions – Distributions from strategic partner firms fell to US$63.7mn from US$80.1mn after two exceptionally strong years. Rising FUM doesn’t translate directly into NGI’s earnings when performance-fee income moderates.
  • Dilution – The Stable deal was funded through a A$145mn entitlement offer and 58.67mn new shares issued to the vendor. That means more shares share the growth, at least until the new portfolio contributes.
  • Complexity- Minority revenue-share stakes in private managers are hard for the market to value, so NGI tends to trade at a discount until it can show the cash flows on the NGI bottom-line

The headline AUM growth of the business looks promising, however ultimately the softer year of distributions from partner funds is weighing on the share price. We see the disconnect as largely timing. The platform keeps growing which is good, they just need to string together a few halves of stronger distributions, including a contribution from the newly acquired Stable portfolio so we/the market can get a better handle on what business as usual earnings will likely be.

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Navigator Global (NGI)
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