We’ve written extensively about energy demand in a new data heavy world. AI/data centres, electrification and on-shoring are all pushing baseload needs higher and tightening power markets. That’s fuelling renewed interest in nuclear, but it’s also catalysing on-site/commercial solar where economics, speed-to-deploy and energy security matter. FSLR sits squarely in that area: US-made, utility-scale capable, and increasingly leveraged to corporates that want price certainty and domestic supply.
Their latest quarterly update was solid, prompting universal upgrades from analysts, sending shares back up near all-time highs:
According to Bloomberg data:
- 19 analysts changed price targets. The average change was +17%.
- 18 analysts raised price targets by an average of 18%.
- The averager12M price target moved $247.92 pre-earnings to $263.30 post-earnings.
- There are 33 buys on the stock, 8 holds and 1 lone sell.
- UBS doesn’t provide Bloomberg with their research; however, their analyst (Jon Windham) who we rate, maintained a Buy and raised his price target from $275 to $330.
Capacity continues to grow, with Q3 output of 3.6GW (2.5GW produced in the US). The new Louisiana manufacturing facility came online in August, with additional 3.7GW finishing lines to be commissioned next year as FSLR continues reshoring and debottlenecking. Demand remains solid and visibility is high – with net bookings of ~54.5GW through 2030. On the earnings call, management commented that US demand remains healthy, and FSLR is executing nicely into a buoyant market. US policy now heavily favours domestic supply, helping large-scale (existing) operators build a bigger moat around their operations.
- Revenue is expected to rise 20% annually for the next couple of years, with earnings growth accelerating, jumping from an estimated profit of $1.57bn in FY25 to $2.34bn by FY26. This puts FSLR on a 2-year forward earnings multiple of just 11.6x, dropping to sub-10x by FY27 on consensus numbers.
While a lot can happen between now and FY27, FSLR have shown an ability to pivot and adapt to what’s been an incredibly choppy and uncertain operating environment. We have no reason to believe this strong execution won’t continue, underpinned by an incredibly supportive backdrop of energy demand. FSLR remains a core holding in the International Equities Portfolio.
MM remains long and bullish FSLR
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