Hi David,
We think Trumps next term will be fascinating with an abundance of both volatility and opportunity. We’ve already seen plenty under the hood in 2024 with room for tremendous &/or awful performance:
- Year-to-date the ASX200 is up +9.7% , however, the best 10 stocks are up 91-400% while the worst 10 stocks are down 44-60%.
Historically the ASX suffers a 10-20% correction every 1-2 years and a +20% bear market roughly every 5-years hence one at least of these is likely during Trumps presidency. At MM we are advocates of the share market over the long term but when we believe the pendulum has turned and a deeper pullback is due we will adopt a more defensive position including higher cash levels. For now, there are no signs this is imminent, though we wake up each day and asses the landscape, write about it, and manage our portfolios accordingly. That’s all investors can do.
- We do expect to move to a more defensive stance at some stage in the next 6-months, but that will be dependent upon prevailing themes at the time – we try not to get too far ahead of ourselves from a macro perspective.