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EQUITIES INTO 2025

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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EQUITIES INTO 2025

I was fortunate enough to start investing in early 2009 at the bottom of the GFC and have been happy with my investments for 15 years now. However, right now I am more uncertain as to what to do than I have ever been.  Are we going to see global volatility through the Trump years and, if so, is it prudent to perhaps take a more defensive stance? Not asking for direct advice, just your overall view. Thank you.

Answer

Hi David,

We think Trumps next term will be fascinating with an abundance of both volatility and opportunity. We’ve already seen plenty under the hood in 2024 with room for tremendous &/or awful performance:

  • Year-to-date the ASX200 is up +9.7% , however, the best 10 stocks are up 91-400% while the worst 10 stocks are down 44-60%.

Historically the ASX suffers a 10-20% correction every 1-2 years and a +20% bear market roughly every 5-years hence one at least of these is likely during Trumps presidency. At MM we are advocates of the share market over the long term  but when we believe the pendulum has turned and a deeper pullback is due we will adopt a more defensive position including higher cash levels. For now, there are no signs this is imminent, though we wake up each day and asses the landscape, write about it, and manage our portfolios accordingly. That’s all investors can do.

  • We do expect to move to a more defensive stance at some stage in the next 6-months, but that will be dependent upon prevailing themes at the time – we try not to get too far ahead of ourselves from a macro perspective.
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ASX200 Index
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