US stocks rallied overnight and our preferred scenario is the 2023 advance has further to travel especially if we consider how well it handled a hawkish Fed and very strong US Employment data last week i.e. if a market can hold together on “bad news” it’s a strong market.
- Our preferred scenario remains the S&P500 will eventually test the 4300 area but a strong CPI tonight is the obvious short-term risk.
The $US Index has consolidated its recent bounce from sub 101 and if we are correct its next leg will be on the upside towards the 105 area which by definition should be negative for commodity prices and their respective stocks.
- We are bearish on the $US medium/long term but feel its recent bounce has further to travel.