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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 2.16 Fair value 2.48 One-star price 2.85
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (2.16) to the one-star price (2.85).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4255 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 1.75 |
| Price - 12 month high | 2.26 |
| Price - 12 month low | 1.26 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 5.12 |
| Market capitalization | 1,216.60 |
| 12 Month High price date | 24 APR 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 26 JUN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 5.72 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.75% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -0.57% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -18.46% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 1.45% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 11.15% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 13.31% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 20.34% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.168 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.109 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.144 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 0.840 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 0.768 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.430 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 1.441 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.427 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 1.432 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.285 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.113 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.336 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.310 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.043 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.325 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.169 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.110 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.169 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.110 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.154 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 10.86 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 9.48 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 1.54 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 0.84 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 7.68 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.81 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 0.83 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 11.79 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 4.84 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 262.50 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 132.70 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.56% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.46% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | -37.10 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 32.75% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 32.81% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 33.41% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 33.48% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 113.20 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 628.60 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 565.10 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 246.60 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 239.10 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 143.20 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 81.30 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 125.50 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 81.20 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 110.70 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 107.50 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.12 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 19.97% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 14.37% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 26.96% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 28.49% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 14.39% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 22.78% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 21.68% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 20.03% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 6.93% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 4.61% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 12.53% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 7.98% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 3.75% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 8.56% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | — |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | — |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | — |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 16.48% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Energy stocks have lagged the move in oil prices, and the reason comes down to how the market prices future earnings. The Iran conflict and disruption to Persian Gulf supply drove a sharp spike in near-term oil prices—a clear windfall for producers, but longer-dated futures moved less aggressively, even though they did rise.
KAR was the best-performing ASX200 stock on Thursday, surging +7.7%, its largest gain since August. The energy producer released its quarterly update and announced an additional $US75mn on-market buyback through 2025.
KAR fell another 2.1% on Monday, extending its decline year-to-date to 19.2%. This month saw Morgans upgrade its target for KAR to a whopping $2.80 due to its positive outlook for oil. KAR has significant cash and is fully funded, plus production is set to double over the next 12 months. As subscribers can see on the MM site, analysts like KAR with 3 HOLDS & 10 BUYS, the opposite to CBA, which keeps advancing while KAR slips ever lower, i.e. a great illustration that independent thinking is important.
Australian-based oil and gas exploration and production company KAR is up +14.2% year-to-date, making it one of the best in the Energy Sector, especially compared to its oil and gas peers. However, we have now adopted a more passive stance towards oil after its stellar rally from its May low, which, by definition, leaves us on the fence with regard to KAR.
Australian-based oil and gas exploration and production company Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR) slipped -3.5% yesterday testing its 12-month low in the process. In Q1 Karoon (KAR) announced a $US22-35m tax hit on the back of Brazil’s new tax, we continue to believe KAR is a risk not worth taking here. While we believe energy prices are “looking for a low” we see better risk-reward in other stocks in the sector. • We aren’t interested in KAR preferring Woodside Energy (WDS) in the sector.
Oil and gas explorer KAR has fallen -4.57% so far this year although this shouldn’t be totally unexpected after the stock’s huge rally post-Covid. Our “best guess” is KAR will experience a few months of consolidation around the $2 area.
Australia-based oil and gas exploration and production company Karoon Energy Ltd has enjoyed strong performance similar to most of the Global Energy Sector i.e. KAR is up +29% in 2022. This $1.2bn business doesn’t yet pay a dividend but it does feel cheap trading on a P/E of 2.84x earnings for 2023 especially as it looks likely to remain FCF positive even at peak CAPEX, just as it did in 2022.
Karoon Energy Ltd is an Australia-based oil and gas exploration and production company that has enjoyed the strong performance across most of the Energy Sector i.e. KAR is up +20% in 2022. This $1.1bn business doesn’t yet pay a dividend but it does feel unsustainably cheap trading on a P/E of 2.9x earnings for 2023 especially as it looks likely to remain FCF positive even at peak CAPEX, just as it did in 2022.
MM is neutral KAR
MM is cautiously bullish towards KAR
MM is neutral KAR
MM is neutral to bearish toward KAR around $1.95
MM is neutral to bearish KAR
MM likes in KAR into pullbacks below $2
MM is bullish KAR targeting another test of $2.50
Karoon produces around 8 million barrels of oil equivalent annually from its wholly owned Bauna field in Brazil's offshore Santos Basin and around 3.5 mmboe from 30%-owned Who Dat on the US Gulf Coast. The company acquired Bauna from Petrobras in 2020 and steadily increased production via well interventions and new developments. Field life is approaching six years based on proven and probable reserves of 46 million barrels at the end of December 2025, though this excludes a further 140 million barrels in 2C contingent resources that have the potential to increase life further. We credit a life of more than 10 years, assuming conversion of some 2C contingent resources into the reserve category with drilling. There are also prospective untested targets within Karoon's permits.
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