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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Don’t fight the bull as stocks surge to new highs

The ASX200 rallied +0.79% on Tuesday, taking the local index above 8300 for the first time. Buying was broad-based, with over 80% of the main board closing in positive territory, but it was financials, healthcare, and tech stocks that led the line, with all three sectors closing over +2.3% higher. The index opened on the front foot following gains on Wall Street and ground higher through the day on an absence of selling in a market that “feels” underweight, especially in some of the influential pockets.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Lan Fo’an might not have done enough on Saturday…

Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised more support for China’s struggling property sector and hinted at more significant government borrowing to shore up the economy, but again, it lacked the granular details investors were looking for. The briefing didn’t produce a headline dollar figure for the fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we follow RIO further into the lithium space?

The ASX200 finished up just +0.1% in a choppy session on Wednesday, with the banks offsetting further weakness by the miners – a 6.67% plunge by Chinese stocks didn't help. A 1.8% surge in New Zealand’s equities after the RBNZ cut rates by 0.5% helped local sentiment. Still, it wasn’t enough to make meaningful gains as the heavyweight iron ore miners dragged the chain due to China's lack of further stimulus measures on Tuesday. However, we wouldn't fight Beijing, who announced yesterday evening AEST that further announcements will follow on Saturday when markets are closed—we “wouldn’t be short for quids.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China stimulus euphoria takes a well-deserved rest

The ASX200 retreated -0.35% on Tuesday after a briefing from China’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on further stimulus. We thought there was a distinct risk of “buy on rumour and sell on fact” playing out, but instead, with few facts actually being released, it was simply a case of sell.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): China back after Golden Week festivities

Recent stimulus announced by Beijing and the PBOC included interest-rate cuts, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term depreciation in property prices – as we’ve said before a “whatever it takes approach”. Chinese stocks are due to reopen this morning after enjoying the Golden Week break, with many analysts now expecting further gains into Christmas.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the “Trump Trade” back on as he nudges ahead at the Bookies?

The ASX200 experienced another quiet session as China Golden Week approached its conclusion. The index finished up +0.1%, even with over 50% of the market closing lower. However, when CBA, BHP, and CSL all advanced, the markets were going to be well supported. Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong took a rest after surging ~30%, but a 1.6% pullback was nothing to worry the bulls.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: If the expected path for rate cuts is “as good as it gets”, what next?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session on Wednesday down just -0.1%, with over 65% of the main board ending lower. However, another solid session by the resources, particularly energy names, was enough to stem the losses. Escalation of the Middle East conflict set the tone early in the morning, but buying in the likes of Beach Energy (BPT) +4.6% and Woodside (WDS) +3.1% almost offset general selling on concerns after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran for its missile attack – the regions on a knife edge
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MM is bullish toward the ASX200
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NDQ
MM is cautiously bullish towards US equities’ short-term
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OOO
MM has again turned neutral towards crude oil
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HLS
MM is long and bullish HLS
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MFG
MM remains long & bullish MFG across two portfolios
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IEL
MM is neutral/bearish IEL
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MM is bullish Goldman as it breaks to new all-time highs
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Lan Fo’an might not have done enough on Saturday…

Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised more support for China’s struggling property sector and hinted at more significant government borrowing to shore up the economy, but again, it lacked the granular details investors were looking for. The briefing didn’t produce a headline dollar figure for the fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we follow RIO further into the lithium space?

The ASX200 finished up just +0.1% in a choppy session on Wednesday, with the banks offsetting further weakness by the miners – a 6.67% plunge by Chinese stocks didn't help. A 1.8% surge in New Zealand’s equities after the RBNZ cut rates by 0.5% helped local sentiment. Still, it wasn’t enough to make meaningful gains as the heavyweight iron ore miners dragged the chain due to China's lack of further stimulus measures on Tuesday. However, we wouldn't fight Beijing, who announced yesterday evening AEST that further announcements will follow on Saturday when markets are closed—we “wouldn’t be short for quids.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China stimulus euphoria takes a well-deserved rest

The ASX200 retreated -0.35% on Tuesday after a briefing from China’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on further stimulus. We thought there was a distinct risk of “buy on rumour and sell on fact” playing out, but instead, with few facts actually being released, it was simply a case of sell.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): China back after Golden Week festivities

Recent stimulus announced by Beijing and the PBOC included interest-rate cuts, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term depreciation in property prices – as we’ve said before a “whatever it takes approach”. Chinese stocks are due to reopen this morning after enjoying the Golden Week break, with many analysts now expecting further gains into Christmas.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the “Trump Trade” back on as he nudges ahead at the Bookies?

The ASX200 experienced another quiet session as China Golden Week approached its conclusion. The index finished up +0.1%, even with over 50% of the market closing lower. However, when CBA, BHP, and CSL all advanced, the markets were going to be well supported. Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong took a rest after surging ~30%, but a 1.6% pullback was nothing to worry the bulls.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: If the expected path for rate cuts is “as good as it gets”, what next?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session on Wednesday down just -0.1%, with over 65% of the main board ending lower. However, another solid session by the resources, particularly energy names, was enough to stem the losses. Escalation of the Middle East conflict set the tone early in the morning, but buying in the likes of Beach Energy (BPT) +4.6% and Woodside (WDS) +3.1% almost offset general selling on concerns after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran for its missile attack – the regions on a knife edge

what matters today Market Matters
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