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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are the “short sellers” right to focus on consumer stocks?

Hedge funds have shifted their short positions away from ASX resource names that benefited from the recent commodities boom, targeting consumer-facing stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, Domino’s Pizza and Guzman y Gomez amid concerns around weakening household spending. Just six months ago, five of the six most shorted stocks on the ASX were resource plays, including uranium names Boss Energy and Paladin Energy, alongside lithium producers Pilbara Minerals, Liontown Resources and Mineral Resources. Today, traders have pivoted, with Domino’s Pizza now the most heavily shorted stock on the ASX, while Treasury Wine Estates and Guzman y Gomez also feature among the top five most shorted names.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Rounding off report season as market volatility surges on oil price uncertainty

The ASX200 haemorrhaged on Tuesday, closing down 123-points or 1.3%, as weak US futures, and a cautious Michelle Bullock broke the market's stubborn resistance - the local 3-year yield surged 0.15% during our day session following the RBA chiefs’ hawkish comments. We discussed the drop in bonds (yields higher) yesterday afternoon - Here. The move in bonds weighed on rate-sensitive stocks/sector, with the consumer discretionary, real estate and tech sectors all underperforming the main board, and closing down by more than 2% - more of the same is likely this morning after bonds fell further overnight, although they did bounce into the close. However, losses were broad-based on Tuesday, with almost 75% of the market closing down on the day.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 Stocks MM Likes, & 3 We Don’t, as Middle East Conflict Escalates

The ASX200 was firm on Monday, shrugging off the conflict in the Middle East to close marginally higher, trading and closing above 9200 for the first time - not a good day for the bears! The index clawed back early losses as heavyweight miners rebounded from initial weakness to push firmly into positive territory. BHP led from the front, rallying over $2 from its early low to end the session up +1.4% at another all-time high, adding 14-points to the index on its own. By the close, the Materials and Energy Sector combined to add 67-points to the main board, offsetting the 55-point negative contribution from the financials as the story remained the same on the performance front.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Markets wake up to Private credit and War turmoil

Over the weekend, the US and Israel have launched coordinated strikes on hundreds of Iranian military targets, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defences and missile sites, in an effort to cripple Tehran’s capabilities and halt its nuclear ambitions, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-linked targets across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, although regional defences intercepted most threats. The escalation has heightened fears of a broader Middle East war, with airspace closures and rising geopolitical tensions.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at Battery Metal ETFs as Zimbabwe bans lithium exports

The ASX 200 posted another all-time high on Thursday, closing up +0.5% after flirting with the psychological 9200 level in the morning. IT stocks led gains, with the sector surging +5.2% amid a broad-based rally that saw 7 of 11 sectors trade higher. Health care rebounded 1.6% following recent weakness, supported by a strong interim result from Ramsay Health Care. The miners again provided meaningful support, rising 1.0% and pushing to fresh highs as BHP extended its record run, trading above $58 for the first time - even after closing 50c below its intra-day high Australia’s biggest stock added more than 20 points to the index, or more than 40% of the day's gain.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is it time to tweak holdings in the beaten-up Software Sector?

The ASX 200 powered to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, ending the session with triple-digit gains. In character with recent action on the stock/sector level, gains weren’t as broad-based as we would usually expect for such a barnstorming day, with more than 30% of the main board closing lower, along with the consumer services, defensive utilities and consumer discretionary sectors. It's starting to sound like a stuck record, but the miners performed the heavy lifting with BHP Group (BHP) contributing ~28% towards the day's gain - the “Big Australian” is on fire, adding another +3.2%, extending its surge so far in 2026 to +24%, and we’re less than two months in!
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: BHP and fellow miners keep dragging the ASX towards new all-time highs

The ASX200 closed flat on Tuesday despite less than 40% of the main board advancing. The story at the stock/sector level remained the same, with miners and banks offsetting losses across the broader market. BHP, Westpac and NAB added 24 points to the index. BHP, often referred to as the Big Australian, made new all-time highs on Tuesday, trading above $55 for the first time while it reported strongly this month, its starting to remind us of the feeding frenzy where ETF and momentum buyers drove CBA towards $200 in the first half of 2025:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Three Companies that missed the mark, but has the market hit them too hard?

The ASX200 wobbled on Monday, as was largely expected, following Trump's tariff tantrum over the weekend, which created uncertainty around US trade policy. The local bourse slipped 0.6%, with over 70% of the main board retreating, but another strong session from the miners stemmed the losses, with heavyweight BHP again posting a fresh all-time high, closing up +19% year-to-date.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Don’t panic around Trumps 15% tariffs

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down most of Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling in a 6-3 vote that the law does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. Markets reacted positively to the ruling, with stocks rising, including Amazon, up more than 2%, alongside gains in retailers Home Depot and Five Below, amid hopes of relief from tariff-driven cost pressures and sticky inflation.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at Energy ETFs as Oil breaks above $US70/barrel

The ASX 200 posted a new intra-day high on Thursday before slipping into the close, ending a strong day up 79 points, or 0.9%. As reporting season gathers pace, yesterday’s session delivered another round of outsized moves from companies both beating and missing expectations.
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MM is now bullish towards the ASX200 around 8900
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IVV
MM is neutral towards the S&P 500 around 6870
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MM is now neutral towards the IGV ETF around $US86
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MM is neutral towards gold around $US5,125
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BHP
MM is long and bullish BHP
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SFR
MM remains long and bullish SFR ~$18
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MM is long and bullish WHC ~$8.30
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TWE
MM is neutral towards TWE around $4.20
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DMP
MM is neutral towards DMP around $17.50
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GYG
MM is neutral towards GYG around $19.
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Rounding off report season as market volatility surges on oil price uncertainty

The ASX200 haemorrhaged on Tuesday, closing down 123-points or 1.3%, as weak US futures, and a cautious Michelle Bullock broke the market's stubborn resistance - the local 3-year yield surged 0.15% during our day session following the RBA chiefs’ hawkish comments. We discussed the drop in bonds (yields higher) yesterday afternoon - Here. The move in bonds weighed on rate-sensitive stocks/sector, with the consumer discretionary, real estate and tech sectors all underperforming the main board, and closing down by more than 2% - more of the same is likely this morning after bonds fell further overnight, although they did bounce into the close. However, losses were broad-based on Tuesday, with almost 75% of the market closing down on the day.

Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 Stocks MM Likes, & 3 We Don’t, as Middle East Conflict Escalates

The ASX200 was firm on Monday, shrugging off the conflict in the Middle East to close marginally higher, trading and closing above 9200 for the first time - not a good day for the bears! The index clawed back early losses as heavyweight miners rebounded from initial weakness to push firmly into positive territory. BHP led from the front, rallying over $2 from its early low to end the session up +1.4% at another all-time high, adding 14-points to the index on its own. By the close, the Materials and Energy Sector combined to add 67-points to the main board, offsetting the 55-point negative contribution from the financials as the story remained the same on the performance front.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Markets wake up to Private credit and War turmoil

Over the weekend, the US and Israel have launched coordinated strikes on hundreds of Iranian military targets, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defences and missile sites, in an effort to cripple Tehran’s capabilities and halt its nuclear ambitions, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-linked targets across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, although regional defences intercepted most threats. The escalation has heightened fears of a broader Middle East war, with airspace closures and rising geopolitical tensions.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at Battery Metal ETFs as Zimbabwe bans lithium exports

The ASX 200 posted another all-time high on Thursday, closing up +0.5% after flirting with the psychological 9200 level in the morning. IT stocks led gains, with the sector surging +5.2% amid a broad-based rally that saw 7 of 11 sectors trade higher. Health care rebounded 1.6% following recent weakness, supported by a strong interim result from Ramsay Health Care. The miners again provided meaningful support, rising 1.0% and pushing to fresh highs as BHP extended its record run, trading above $58 for the first time - even after closing 50c below its intra-day high Australia’s biggest stock added more than 20 points to the index, or more than 40% of the day's gain.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is it time to tweak holdings in the beaten-up Software Sector?

The ASX 200 powered to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, ending the session with triple-digit gains. In character with recent action on the stock/sector level, gains weren’t as broad-based as we would usually expect for such a barnstorming day, with more than 30% of the main board closing lower, along with the consumer services, defensive utilities and consumer discretionary sectors. It's starting to sound like a stuck record, but the miners performed the heavy lifting with BHP Group (BHP) contributing ~28% towards the day's gain - the “Big Australian” is on fire, adding another +3.2%, extending its surge so far in 2026 to +24%, and we’re less than two months in!

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: BHP and fellow miners keep dragging the ASX towards new all-time highs

The ASX200 closed flat on Tuesday despite less than 40% of the main board advancing. The story at the stock/sector level remained the same, with miners and banks offsetting losses across the broader market. BHP, Westpac and NAB added 24 points to the index. BHP, often referred to as the Big Australian, made new all-time highs on Tuesday, trading above $55 for the first time while it reported strongly this month, its starting to remind us of the feeding frenzy where ETF and momentum buyers drove CBA towards $200 in the first half of 2025:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Three Companies that missed the mark, but has the market hit them too hard?

The ASX200 wobbled on Monday, as was largely expected, following Trump's tariff tantrum over the weekend, which created uncertainty around US trade policy. The local bourse slipped 0.6%, with over 70% of the main board retreating, but another strong session from the miners stemmed the losses, with heavyweight BHP again posting a fresh all-time high, closing up +19% year-to-date.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Don’t panic around Trumps 15% tariffs

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down most of Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling in a 6-3 vote that the law does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. Markets reacted positively to the ruling, with stocks rising, including Amazon, up more than 2%, alongside gains in retailers Home Depot and Five Below, amid hopes of relief from tariff-driven cost pressures and sticky inflation.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at Energy ETFs as Oil breaks above $US70/barrel

The ASX 200 posted a new intra-day high on Thursday before slipping into the close, ending a strong day up 79 points, or 0.9%. As reporting season gathers pace, yesterday’s session delivered another round of outsized moves from companies both beating and missing expectations.

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