The ASX200 closed up more than 2% on Tuesday, with the market enjoying broad-based buying. All 11 major sectors advanced, led by Tech, while the defensives were the laggards. In yesterday's report, we discussed volatility, but a few subscribers who liked the piece felt it was lost being too far into the daily missive; hence, here’s a follow-up summary, arguably even more pertinent after the last 24 hours.
The ASX200 fell another 4.2% on Monday, its largest one-day drop since 2020, as concerns continue to escalate that Trump's aggressive tariff policies will send the world into recession. The moves across a range of financial markets on Monday were pricing in a recession as “un fait accompli”, especially in the morning.
In the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” and predicted a new “golden age” in America – financial markets do not agree. On Friday night, he compounded market fears by stating that his decision to hike US tariffs to their highest levels in over a century would not change, despite sparking a global market meltdown.
The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Thursday, a win compared to the melt-down unfolding across global markets. The key takeaway from Trump's much-discussed global tariffs is that the US now risks a recession this year, and inflation could surge, a worrying combination for equities. The only positive on the day was that markets have increased bets that the Fed will cut rates further through 2025 despite the possible uptick in inflation. Credit markets are now pricing in nearly four rate cuts by the Fed into Christmas. Ironically, US equities and the dollar bore some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy, which is certainly understandable – tariffs are ultimately bad for growth, the US looks to have kicked an own goal, for now at least.
After promising so much to make “America Wealthy Again.” Donald Trump walked out into the Rose Garden of the White House with all the world watching, an environment he revelled in. Markets have been on edge for weeks, anticipating the likely imposition of worldwide tariffs. At 7 am AEST, US indices ended up strongly ahead of Trump's “Liberation Day” speech, in the hope that the blanket of uncertainty would be lifted by the speech he proudly titled “The Declaration of Economic Independence Day.”
The ASX200 closed up over 1% on Tuesday on broad-based buying, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by real estate, which gained more than 2%. The rebound in the local market felt like fund managers were putting some money to work ahead of tariff announcements and the perceived impact on global inflation and trade.
The ASX200 was smacked 138 points on Monday, with over 90% of the main board closing lower, as fears of tariffs and recession kept all but the bravest investors on the sidelines. Local stocks joined a global risk sell-off, as increasing worries about tariffs pushed Japan's Nikkei down by over 4% and Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong down by more than 1%. MM is getting the first chapter of our forecast contrarian forecast; let's hope we are correct come Friday.
High-conviction, crowded Wall Street bets have been hammered over recent weeks in a similar fashion to the previously hot stocks on the ASX. The unwind accelerated on Friday, with US stocks tumbling to their second-worst day of the year as risk assets were pummelled by renewed concerns that a flurry of tariffs will stoke inflation just as signs increase that consumer sentiment and spending are buckling.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.4% on Thursday in a quiet session, recovering more than half of its early losses as the banks provided the market with some degree of support. Conversely, the crowded growth trades that dominated the ASX's performance through 2023/4 continued to struggle, e.g., Pro Medicus (PME) -7.8%, Zip (ZIP) -7.1%, NEXTDC (NXT) -6.5%, and HUB24 (HUB) -4.5% - more on this group later.
The ASX 200 rallied 0.7% on Wednesday, with the banks being the cornerstone of the advance. ANZ was the standout, gaining 3% after falling 3.2% on Tuesday when it appeared the operator with a sell order exercised a very heavy hand.
The ASX200 fell another 4.2% on Monday, its largest one-day drop since 2020, as concerns continue to escalate that Trump's aggressive tariff policies will send the world into recession. The moves across a range of financial markets on Monday were pricing in a recession as “un fait accompli”, especially in the morning.
In the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” and predicted a new “golden age” in America – financial markets do not agree. On Friday night, he compounded market fears by stating that his decision to hike US tariffs to their highest levels in over a century would not change, despite sparking a global market meltdown.
The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Thursday, a win compared to the melt-down unfolding across global markets. The key takeaway from Trump's much-discussed global tariffs is that the US now risks a recession this year, and inflation could surge, a worrying combination for equities. The only positive on the day was that markets have increased bets that the Fed will cut rates further through 2025 despite the possible uptick in inflation. Credit markets are now pricing in nearly four rate cuts by the Fed into Christmas. Ironically, US equities and the dollar bore some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy, which is certainly understandable – tariffs are ultimately bad for growth, the US looks to have kicked an own goal, for now at least.
After promising so much to make “America Wealthy Again.” Donald Trump walked out into the Rose Garden of the White House with all the world watching, an environment he revelled in. Markets have been on edge for weeks, anticipating the likely imposition of worldwide tariffs. At 7 am AEST, US indices ended up strongly ahead of Trump's “Liberation Day” speech, in the hope that the blanket of uncertainty would be lifted by the speech he proudly titled “The Declaration of Economic Independence Day.”
The ASX200 closed up over 1% on Tuesday on broad-based buying, which saw all 11 major sectors advance, led by real estate, which gained more than 2%. The rebound in the local market felt like fund managers were putting some money to work ahead of tariff announcements and the perceived impact on global inflation and trade.
The ASX200 was smacked 138 points on Monday, with over 90% of the main board closing lower, as fears of tariffs and recession kept all but the bravest investors on the sidelines. Local stocks joined a global risk sell-off, as increasing worries about tariffs pushed Japan's Nikkei down by over 4% and Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong down by more than 1%. MM is getting the first chapter of our forecast contrarian forecast; let's hope we are correct come Friday.
High-conviction, crowded Wall Street bets have been hammered over recent weeks in a similar fashion to the previously hot stocks on the ASX. The unwind accelerated on Friday, with US stocks tumbling to their second-worst day of the year as risk assets were pummelled by renewed concerns that a flurry of tariffs will stoke inflation just as signs increase that consumer sentiment and spending are buckling.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.4% on Thursday in a quiet session, recovering more than half of its early losses as the banks provided the market with some degree of support. Conversely, the crowded growth trades that dominated the ASX's performance through 2023/4 continued to struggle, e.g., Pro Medicus (PME) -7.8%, Zip (ZIP) -7.1%, NEXTDC (NXT) -6.5%, and HUB24 (HUB) -4.5% - more on this group later.
The ASX 200 rallied 0.7% on Wednesday, with the banks being the cornerstone of the advance. ANZ was the standout, gaining 3% after falling 3.2% on Tuesday when it appeared the operator with a sell order exercised a very heavy hand.
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