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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “shenanigans hour” approaches.

The ASX200 fell early yesterday only to recover virtually all of the losses after midday to close down just 0.1% - how many times have we written that in the last 12-months! Almost 50% of the Australian population being thrown back into a COVID lockdown has been taken in its stride by the local market illustrating the inherent buying into any weakness.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: COVID’s back, will opportunities present themselves?

Today’s report as its name suggests usually focuses on the macro-economic factors driving financial markets both today and into the future, however as Sydney goes into a 2-week full lockdown and the rest of Australia feels in danger of following suit the deteriorating local virus picture looks highly likely to dominate both the end of the this financial year, & the start of FY22 - NSW represents ~30% of Australia’s GDP.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Forget the rest, watch the $US.

The ASX200 reminded us again on Tuesday that there’s a lot of life left in this post GFC bull market as it recovered over 100-points of Mondays plunge to close only marginally down for the week after 2 very volatile sessions. Tuesday saw over 80% of stocks rally with most areas of standout strength almost mirroring where the selling was focused on Monday.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing MM’s local IT holdings into the current sector strength

The ASX200 followed Fridays weak lead from global indices finally closing down -1.8% with the heavyweight Banking Sector surrendering some of their recent impressive gains, it felt like a session of aggressive profit taking with the stronger performers over the last 3-months suffering the most e.g. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) fell -5.4% after rallying over +15% over the last 3-months.
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MM remains a happy buyer of weakness over the coming weeks with an initial target for the index ~7,000
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MM’s ideal upside target for the Dow is around the 36,000 area, or just ~3.5% higher
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IWM
MM is currently neutral the Russell 2000 Index
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VGS
MM is neutral the EM index short-term
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USD
MM’s upside target for the $US is in the 93-94 area
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MM is currently neutral the $A
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MM is looking to buy US bond yields into current weakness
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CBA
MM is neutral the banks short-term
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MM is neutral oil stocks at present
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MM feels iron ore stocks have got ahead of themselves
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MM is now net bullish Bitcoin
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MM remains bullish volatility from current levels
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IVV
MM is neutral US Banks at current levels
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are gold stocks starting to turn?

It already feels like a long week and its only Friday morning, the combination of being in lockdown and EOFY has been exhausting, the market itself is only down -0.6% so it’s certainly not any wild gyrations in stocks draining our energy levels.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see any value in the ASX200’s worst stocks of the last financial year?

A new financial year is upon us and if its only half as good as FY20/21’s it will still be well above the average performance of recent decades but with the tailwind of huge fiscal and monetary stimulus diminishing fast MM believes the next year is likely to be very different to the last one. Already in 2021 we’ve seen a noticeable migration back towards the value sector and in particular the banks which has helped the ASX200 rally +11% since January 1st i.e. the average gain of the “Big Four” banks has been +23.7% as they’ve embraced the prospect of higher bond yields.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “shenanigans hour” approaches.

The ASX200 fell early yesterday only to recover virtually all of the losses after midday to close down just 0.1% - how many times have we written that in the last 12-months! Almost 50% of the Australian population being thrown back into a COVID lockdown has been taken in its stride by the local market illustrating the inherent buying into any weakness.

Morning report

Macro Monday: COVID’s back, will opportunities present themselves?

Today’s report as its name suggests usually focuses on the macro-economic factors driving financial markets both today and into the future, however as Sydney goes into a 2-week full lockdown and the rest of Australia feels in danger of following suit the deteriorating local virus picture looks highly likely to dominate both the end of the this financial year, & the start of FY22 - NSW represents ~30% of Australia’s GDP.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Forget the rest, watch the $US.

The ASX200 reminded us again on Tuesday that there’s a lot of life left in this post GFC bull market as it recovered over 100-points of Mondays plunge to close only marginally down for the week after 2 very volatile sessions. Tuesday saw over 80% of stocks rally with most areas of standout strength almost mirroring where the selling was focused on Monday.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing MM’s local IT holdings into the current sector strength

The ASX200 followed Fridays weak lead from global indices finally closing down -1.8% with the heavyweight Banking Sector surrendering some of their recent impressive gains, it felt like a session of aggressive profit taking with the stronger performers over the last 3-months suffering the most e.g. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) fell -5.4% after rallying over +15% over the last 3-months.

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