The ASX200 fell away on Tuesday, finishing the soft session down 0.3% as further weakness in the miners offset a resurgence by the influential banks. While the gold and lithium names dominated the losers' enclosure from a performance perspective, it was the heavyweights in the materials sector that weighed on the index, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Northern Star (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) hitting the index by more than 0.3% on their own.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.2% on Monday, in a lacklustre session that only saw 40% of the main board close higher despite encouraging moves by US futures during local market trade. Ongoing stock and sector reversion was evident, in particular with some major underperformers of the last 12 months enjoying a return to the winners' enclosure.
Last month, the new Fed Chair struck a hawkish tone in his first press conference, sending gold and copper prices lower while lifting the US dollar after signalling policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates further if required to rein in inflation.
The ASX200 recovered from a weak opening on Thursday, reversing early losses to end higher, albeit just! There were two main catalysts for the recovery, from very different areas of the market.
The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.2% on Monday, in a lacklustre session that only saw 40% of the main board close higher despite encouraging moves by US futures during local market trade. Ongoing stock and sector reversion was evident, in particular with some major underperformers of the last 12 months enjoying a return to the winners' enclosure.
Last month, the new Fed Chair struck a hawkish tone in his first press conference, sending gold and copper prices lower while lifting the US dollar after signalling policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates further if required to rein in inflation.
The ASX200 recovered from a weak opening on Thursday, reversing early losses to end higher, albeit just! There were two main catalysts for the recovery, from very different areas of the market.
The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
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