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Morning report

What Matters Today: A Fresh Takeover Wave Hits the ASX — Who’s Next?

The ASX 200 retreated 0.4% ahead of this afternoons RBA rate decision, extending what has become one of the most sustained losing streaks of the year, nine declines in ten sessions, with the banks again at the centre of the weakness. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) was the standout drag; its soft quarterly result sent the stock down 1.6% and took approximately six points from the index.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: ASX Faces RBA Decision and Federal Budget in Critical Two-Week Window

The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs to track the ongoing massive AI buildout

The ASX200 continued its losing streak for an eighth day on Thursday, as it waved goodbye to April, a month that promised so much but ultimately only closed up +2.2%, not a bad net result, but the last few sessions made it feel far worse. The song remained the same yesterday, as oil prices ground ever higher and the realities of a prolonged energy shock hit home for Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and other exposed businesses. Confidence is rapidly being eroded that the US-Iran conflict will be resolved any time soon, as boards start pointing fingers at the impact of the war for disappointing trading updates. Yesterday, it was Woolworths -7.8%, while South32 (ASX:S32) -5.4% focused more on Trump's tariffs.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Atlas Arteria takeover bid – What it could mean for ASX infrastructure and utilities stocks?

The ASX200 posted its 7th consecutive day of losses on Wednesday, falling another 0.3% despite a softer-than-feared inflation print. The CPI came in at 4.6% in the year to March, lower than expected but spiking sharply from February, hitting levels not seen since 2023. Short-dated local bonds rallied on the release (yields lower), but the move did little to shift the broader hawkish outlook for rates into 2026. Credit markets continue to price in a ~70% probability of a third RBA hike next week.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: ASX Faces Four Major Headwinds Beyond the Iran Conflict

The ASX 200 fell a further 0.6% on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak in four years. It was another ugly day for Australia's share market, notching its sixth-straight session of losses as 9 out of the 11 main sectors retreated. On the day, it was the miners that did the most damage, contributing over 35% of the day's decline as a bounce in the $US dollar dragged down commodities, except the oil price, which continues to push higher, notching its seventh daily advance, almost a perfect mirror image of the ASX.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: CSL, Cochlear and the death of the healthcare premium – Is Australia’s most trusted sector broken?

The ASX200 fell sharply on Wednesday, dragged lower by healthcare and banking stocks, while miners offered little support to offset the weakness. The bears dominated the company news, with Cochlear (ASX:COH) -41%, Generation Development (ASX:GDG) -23%, and Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) -9.1% pushing a bounce by Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) +17% into the shade. The ongoing weakness in the banking sector, combined with heavy selling in healthcare stocks, accounted for more than 95% of the day's decline, underscoring the market's concentration of weakness. Similarly, the trifecta of Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), Cochlear (ASX:COH) and CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) made up 50% of the day's decline on their own.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is the next chapter about to unfold for the banks?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session little changed on Tuesday, for a third straight session, amid a looming US-Iran ceasefire deadline and continued tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, it was a quiet session on both the stock and sector front with only the consumer staples (+0.76%) and energy sector (-0.9%) moving by more than 0.5%, with the index remaining range-bound between 8890 and 9020 for the 10th consecutive session.
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MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 8700
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NDQ
MM is bullish towards the NASDAQ 100 around 28,000
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OOO
MM remains cautiously bearish towards Sept Brent around $US101.
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MFG
MM is neutral towards Magellan around $9.60
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CLW
MM is switching from CNI to CLW in the Income Portfolio
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MM remains cautiously bullish CMG US ~$US32
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MM remains long & bullish First Solar ~$US220.
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MM remains long & cautiously bullish BTU ~$US25
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MM remains long & bullish CCJ US ~$US115
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GTK
MM is adding GTK to the Emerging Companies Hitlist
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: A Fresh Takeover Wave Hits the ASX — Who’s Next?

The ASX 200 retreated 0.4% ahead of this afternoons RBA rate decision, extending what has become one of the most sustained losing streaks of the year, nine declines in ten sessions, with the banks again at the centre of the weakness. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) was the standout drag; its soft quarterly result sent the stock down 1.6% and took approximately six points from the index.

Morning report

Macro Monday: ASX Faces RBA Decision and Federal Budget in Critical Two-Week Window

The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs to track the ongoing massive AI buildout

The ASX200 continued its losing streak for an eighth day on Thursday, as it waved goodbye to April, a month that promised so much but ultimately only closed up +2.2%, not a bad net result, but the last few sessions made it feel far worse. The song remained the same yesterday, as oil prices ground ever higher and the realities of a prolonged energy shock hit home for Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and other exposed businesses. Confidence is rapidly being eroded that the US-Iran conflict will be resolved any time soon, as boards start pointing fingers at the impact of the war for disappointing trading updates. Yesterday, it was Woolworths -7.8%, while South32 (ASX:S32) -5.4% focused more on Trump's tariffs.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Atlas Arteria takeover bid – What it could mean for ASX infrastructure and utilities stocks?

The ASX200 posted its 7th consecutive day of losses on Wednesday, falling another 0.3% despite a softer-than-feared inflation print. The CPI came in at 4.6% in the year to March, lower than expected but spiking sharply from February, hitting levels not seen since 2023. Short-dated local bonds rallied on the release (yields lower), but the move did little to shift the broader hawkish outlook for rates into 2026. Credit markets continue to price in a ~70% probability of a third RBA hike next week.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: ASX Faces Four Major Headwinds Beyond the Iran Conflict

The ASX 200 fell a further 0.6% on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak in four years. It was another ugly day for Australia's share market, notching its sixth-straight session of losses as 9 out of the 11 main sectors retreated. On the day, it was the miners that did the most damage, contributing over 35% of the day's decline as a bounce in the $US dollar dragged down commodities, except the oil price, which continues to push higher, notching its seventh daily advance, almost a perfect mirror image of the ASX.

Morning report

Macro Monday, on Tuesday: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach Record Highs despite Iran

The heavyweight US indices powered to fresh all-time highs on Friday night. However, the weekend delivered another twist to the Iran saga with US President Trump abruptly cancelling the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for peace talks, citing unnecessary costs and a disappointing offer from Tehran.

Morning report

What Matters Today: CSL, Cochlear and the death of the healthcare premium – Is Australia’s most trusted sector broken?

The ASX200 fell sharply on Wednesday, dragged lower by healthcare and banking stocks, while miners offered little support to offset the weakness. The bears dominated the company news, with Cochlear (ASX:COH) -41%, Generation Development (ASX:GDG) -23%, and Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) -9.1% pushing a bounce by Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) +17% into the shade. The ongoing weakness in the banking sector, combined with heavy selling in healthcare stocks, accounted for more than 95% of the day's decline, underscoring the market's concentration of weakness. Similarly, the trifecta of Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), Cochlear (ASX:COH) and CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) made up 50% of the day's decline on their own.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is the next chapter about to unfold for the banks?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session little changed on Tuesday, for a third straight session, amid a looming US-Iran ceasefire deadline and continued tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, it was a quiet session on both the stock and sector front with only the consumer staples (+0.76%) and energy sector (-0.9%) moving by more than 0.5%, with the index remaining range-bound between 8890 and 9020 for the 10th consecutive session.

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