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The ASX200 plunged almost 300 points on Monday as global equity markets continued to panic that a recession was imminent for the US and the rest of the world would follow suit. Nobody felt the pain more than Japan following the BOJ’s rate hike last week; the Nikkei was down a staggering 12.4%, its worst day since “Black Monday” in 1987, wiping out all of this year’s gains in one fell swoop. We believe the unwinding of the “Carry Trade” has been the catalyst that has ignited the current volatility – more on this later. Market sentiment has turned on a sixpence as reduced liquidity collided with the perceived increased risk of an economic slowdown; cash has become the asset class of choice for many investors, i.e. if in doubt, get out! Everything from stocks, gold and Bitcoin, has sold as “risk off” ruled dominated over recent days.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX surges as soft CPI and ‘progress’ in the Middle East combine for the index’s best day 2 months

The ASX enjoyed a strong rebound today, bouncing sharply as investors latched onto two positives at once. Brent crude rolled over in Asian trade after the US President purportedly presented Iran with a 15-point plan to end the conflict, helping to calm nerves. At the same time, the February CPI print came in a touch softer than feared, giving the market some confidence that domestic inflation pressures are easing.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Looking through the noise from the Iran War

The ASX200 managed to close up +0.2% on Tuesday, but it wasn’t pretty with the index ending the session more than 100 points below its early morning high. The issue was the credibility of President Trump's claims that talks are underway to end the conflict with Iran, where reports of such talks were called “Fake News.” The attacks continue, although Trump has postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Materials drive early bounce, ASX fades through the session

The ASX finished modestly higher but well off its intraday highs after an early relief rally faded as the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remained fluid. The index surged more than +130pts at the open, briefly pushing 8500, before momentum cooled as US futures slipped gradually through the day.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX down but recovers nicely from morning lows

The ASX finished lower, though it was much worse early on in the session. The war in the Middle East continues to dominate sentiment, with the market now down ~9% from the start of March, flirting with technical 'correction' territory.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Markets fear the Iranian conflict has no end in sight

The ASX200 ended a tough week down -2.2%, extending March’s retreat to -8.4% with more losses likely on Monday. Materials (-7.1%) and Tech stocks (-4.2%) continued to lead the decline, as fears around global growth and inflation escalated as the war dragged on with no end in sight, and oil prices looked increasingly comfortable above $US110. On Friday night, selling intensified into the U.S. afternoon session after Reuters reported Iraq had declared force majeure on oilfields operated by foreign companies, while President Trump said he was not seeking a ceasefire with Iran. Now entering its fourth week, roughly in line with Trump’s initial timeframe, the conflict is nonetheless unsettling Washington, as Iran’s ability to disrupt oil markets with relative ease continues to drive global angst.

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