Afternoon report 28/07/2026 16:26

The Match Out: ASX tests 6-week high

A solid session locally, with the ASX 200 gaining 0.52% despite US futures remaining slightly lower. The move had the hallmarks of futures-led buying in Australia, with the SPI strengthening through the afternoon and broad gains across consumer discretionary, communications and healthcare, while the major banks also provided support.

Morning report 28/07/2026 10:20

What Matters Today: Is this the time to buy the “Trump Trade?”

The ASX 200 surged +1.4% higher on Monday, delivering its best day in 6 weeks with 85% of the main board closing in positive territory. Only the energy sector closed lower as Middle East tensions eased, sending oil plunging ~9% and global bonds and equities rallied in a classic “risk-on session” for stocks. Ironically, as we head into the uncertainty of Wednesday's Australian Inflation read, it was the sharp reversal higher in bonds (yields lower) following oil's weakness that helped drive rate-sensitive stocks up on Monday, with Tech (+4.5%), Materials (+2.4%), and Real Estate (+1.7%).

Afternoon report 27/07/2026 17:14

The Match Out: ASX surges on deescalation, Discounting at Myer hits margins

The ASX kicked off the new week in fine form that to a pause in US-Iran strikes, putting some probability back on diplomacy. The early spike higher as US Futures rallied was held and built on as the day progressed. Oil traded down 6%, bond yields fell ~10bps and the US was sold, pushing the AUD back up through US70c.

Morning report 27/07/2026 09:55

Macro Monday: Can earnings growth trump rate risks into year-end?

US credit markets are the most hawkish they’ve been in the last 2 years, pricing in one and probably two 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas - not that long since their last rate cut by 0.25% in Dec’25, the final move in an aggressive 1.75% easing cycle. Markets have increased rate hike expectations this month following hawkish Fed signals, renewed inflation concerns from higher oil prices, and rising long-term bond yields as heavy government borrowing increased. A cooler-than-anticipated inflation print (CPI) earlier in the month helped, but the oil price quickly became the overriding factor.

Weekend report 25/07/2026 08:59

Weekend Q&A: Hold on tight, it’s inflation week, just as oil tests US$100

The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.3%, with the US-Iran conflict and a strong employment report pushing up bond yields, weighing on local risk assets. A Wall Street-led technology sell-off, driven by renewed concerns over the returns on AI capital expenditure, spilled over to the ASX, sending the local technology sector down 6.6% for the week. Healthcare also came under pressure, falling 5.7%, while strength in energy (+5.9%) and materials (+1.7%) helped limit the broader market's losses.

Afternoon report 24/07/2026 17:10

The Match Out: Inflation concerns hit the ASX, Tech the major casualty

The ASX 200 finished firmly lower today as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil back toward US$100/barrel, reigniting inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Aussie 3-year bond yield was up +10bps to 4.72%, while the 10 year yield pushed through 5%, settling at 5.08%.

Morning report 24/07/2026 09:52

ETF Friday: 3 Global ETFs that provide insight into investor positioning

The week's most-watched ETFs tell a consistent story, the AI and semiconductor trade is cracking at the edges, inverse and bear products are seeing genuine retail interest for the first time in months, and international equity ETFs are absorbing record inflows as the broadening rotation away from US exceptionalism accelerates. However, funds continue to flow into stocks, with fund flows into active primary equity ETFs totalling more than US$17.5 billion for the week ending July 24, 2026.

Afternoon report 23/07/2026 17:27

The Match Out: ASX fails to hold early gains, stronger jobs data reinforces the prospect of higher rates

The ASX 200 finished a touch higher, though there was a big intra-day reversal following stronger employment data out at 11.30am. The index was up more than 100pts before giving back most of the rally as investors increased the odds of another RBA rate hike. Australia added 76,000 jobs in June, well ahead of the 15,000 expected, while unemployment held at 4.4%. The result pushed the Australian dollar above US70¢ and the 10-year bond yield toward 5%, with markets now pricing a 36% chance of an August rate rise with a full hike priced in by year-end. Next week’s quarterly inflation data has now become even more important.

Morning report 23/07/2026 10:56

What Matters Today: Five ASX stocks quant models are flagging for August earnings upgrades

Afternoon report 22/07/2026 17:34

The Match Out: Miners spring back to life, supporting the ASX

A reasonable day for the ASX as investors returned to beaten-down miners, with strength across copper, gold and energy stocks more than offsetting weakness in healthcare and technology. The buying was patchy though, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher, implying there is still a fair degree of caution out there.