The ASX200’s roller coaster ride through May continued on Thursday with a strong +1.5% bounce as hopes increased that a deal to resolve the conflict in the Middle East was approaching. Unfortunately, we’ve heard it all before. Let's hope it will eventually come to fruition, but in the meantime, 3-weeks into May and triple-digit moves have become commonplace, even though the index is down just 0.5% for the month.
The best in six weeks for the ASX today with positive leads from the US and a surprise jump in unemployment reduced rate hike expectations. Oil prices down, bonds yields down and stocks up – hopefully, a sign of things to come.
The ASX 200 fell 1.3% on Wednesday, closing at a seven-week low as inflation concerns weighed on bonds and equities across Asia. Selling was broad-based on the local bourse, with more than 80% of the main board stocks retreating, led by the previously high-flying Materials Sector (-2.1%), which suffered as rising bond yields pushed the likes of gold and copper lower - rising yields slow economic activity and provide a higher “risk-free” return from bonds or cash, compared to the likes of gold which pays no income. Weakness throughout the day was met with very little buying interest. To put the lack of “risk” appetite into perspective, only one stock rose more than 5%, while twelve fell by the same magnitude.
The ASX fell to a seven-week low as bond yields surged to multi-decade highs on war-driven inflation fears, with miners and banks bearing the brunt of a broad global risk-off session.
The ASX enjoyed a strong session on Tuesday, rallying +1.2% with exactly 75% of the main board finishing in positive territory. Consumer staples led the charge, with the major supermarkets bouncing strongly—Woolworths (ASX: WOW) gained +3.7%, while Metcash (ASX: MTS) and Coles Group (ASX: COL) both climbed +2.7%. However, from an index perspective, the rebound in the “Big Four Banks” did most of the heavy lifting, with CBA, Westpac and NAB accounting for more than a quarter of the ASX200’s gain, although insurers again outperformed on a percentage basis.
The ASX bounced strongly today, recovering most of yesterday’s selloff as oil prices pulled back and fears of an imminent escalation in the Middle East eased slightly. A modest improvement in the tone around negotiations was enough to spark a rebound in risk appetite with the market opening firmer and consolidating through the session.
The ASX 200 endured a tough start to the week, falling ~1.5% on broad-based selling, which saw more than 85% of the main board close lower. Only the energy sector closed higher on the day, as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread, keeping Oil prices high.
The ASX opened lower and looked weak throughout the session today, with the 8500 level providing some support through the afternoon, though there were few real signs of a meaningful bounce. Rising oil prices and another sharp move higher in bond yields continued to weigh heavily on sentiment as markets grapple with the prospect of higher for longer outlook on rates.
Despite Friday’s pullback, US equities still enjoyed their 7th consecutive week of gains, although the rally has become increasingly concentrated on the stock and sector level. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have fallen so far this month, with most of the upside concentrated in “Big Tech” – just four stocks are responsible for more than half of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Even as key equity sectors wobbled and yields advanced, financial markets stayed firm into Thursday, helped by strong corporate earnings.
The ASX200 fell 1.3% last week, with market sentiment softened by Tuesday’s Budget and disappointing trading updates from ASX heavyweights CBA and CSL - as the saying goes, the trend’s your friend, with the previous market darling CSL, now down -43%, in 2026. As we all know, the budget played a dominant role last week, with the influential “Big Four Banks” retreating by an average of close to 6% on fears around Australia's pivotal housing market. It’s a good job the big miners enjoyed a great week, despite surrendering some of their gains on Friday. BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and RIO Tinto (ASX: RIO) posted fresh all-time highs, both advancing +4% by Friday's close.
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