The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX spent most of the session churning in a relatively tight 20-point trading range, with strength in the banks and technology sector largely offset by another weak day for the miners. The market looked comfortable drifting sideways for much of the afternoon before that balance broke down into the close, with the index accelerating lower in what looked like end-of-financial-year tax-loss selling. There were few buyers willing to absorb the selling pressure, leaving the index to finish well off its intraday highs. Despite the weak close, today's price action looked more like portfolio positioning than a deterioration in the macro backdrop.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
The ASX recovered some of last week's weakness to finish higher, as investors looked through ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rotated back into beaten-down growth names.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 ended the week down -0.7%, leaving the index a mere +0.4%, after promising so much in the middle of last week. The main drag on the index was again the miners, despite a bounce on Friday, with heavyweights RIO (-2%), BHP Group (-2%), and Mineral Resources (-12%), offsetting a recovery in the rate-sensitive retail, healthcare, and real estate sectors. We’re now six months into 2026, and the index is up less than 1%, despite strong moves in both directions.
A flat finish capped off a soft week for equities, with the ASX 200 down 0.8% and just two trading sessions remaining before EOFY. Technology (-5%), Materials (-4%) and Energy (-4%) were the week's biggest drags, while investors rotated into more defensive areas such as Consumer Staples (+3%) and Utilities (+2%). The standout, however, was the beaten-down retail sector, which rallied more than 3.5% for the week. We continue to see further upside here as the market increasingly prices out the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by the RBA.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX struggled to gain any traction today, with another sharp selloff across the resources complex outweighing a strong rotation into defensive sectors. While the headline index finished lower, the move masked a notable improvement in market breadth, with more than half of ASX 200 stocks closing in positive territory as investors continued shifting away from the commodity trade and back towards Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Discretionary and Real Estate.
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