An interesting session for Aussie stocks, with initial strength being sold into, which has been a trend of late, only for the RBA to deliver a more ‘dovish’ cut than expected at 2.30pm which prompted a good bounce across most sectors into the close.
Monday saw the ASX200 fail to notch its 9th consecutive gain following Moody's US credit rating downgrade. The index finished down -0.6%, with over 65% of the main board retreating in line with US S&P 500 futures ahead of the night's fascinating session.
A soft session to start the week and it seems the market has taken the US debt downgrade from Moody’s as a catalyst to reduce risk, particularly sectors exposed to global growth such as commodities.
As the US first-quarter earnings season draws to a close, stocks have rallied on easing trade tensions and results that have largely been better than feared/expected. However, companies across the US, Europe and China are pulling their forecasts for the year or providing gloomy outlooks, citing rising costs, weak consumer sentiment and a lack of business confidence as a result of President Donald Trump’s worldwide trade offensive - they’re laying the foundations for a tough 2nd half of 2025, while hopefully hoping to overdeliver if things turn out not too badly.
The ASX 200 ended the week up +1.4 %, taking the month's gains to +2.7%, as the index pushed within striking distance of February's all-time high. The energy and tech sectors drove the gains, both ending the week by more than 5%, while defensive/rate-sensitive stocks dragged the chain, i.e. “risk on” was the order of the day. Out of the mainboard's 11 sectors, only the consumer staples, Utilities, and real estate sectors closed lower. The US-China “Trade Truce” set the platform for a strong start to the week, before the Australian market posted its highest level in three months on Friday after soft US economic data paved the way for interest rate cuts in Australia and the United States. The positive statistics are continuing to line up:
SPI Futures were uber bullish overnight up nearly 100pts, outpacing gains in other markets and that drove a bump on open for stocks, however, it didn’t last with the main board giving back the lion’s share of gains as the day progressed, ultimately trading more than 50pts off the early highs – a sign of exhaustion in the short term after a great rally in stocks.
The ASX 200 rallied for a seventh consecutive day on Thursday. Although the gain of less than 2% has been relatively modest, the sellers remain largely absent as bank dividends are due to hit investors' accounts next month, and the EOFY looms.
The market had a few reasons to decline today following a quiet night overseas, further weakness in US Futures during our time zone, Asian markets that tracked lower and strong employment data out at 11.30am reducing rate cut expectations, however stocks looked through the negative vibe and edged higher- in other words, they simply look like they want to go up!
The ASX 200 struggled early on Wednesday before rallying into the close to finish the session up just over 10 points, enjoying its sixth day of consecutive gains, and posting its highest close in 11 weeks. There might not have been too much buying into strength this week, but in comparable fashion, sellers weren’t keen to increase cash levels into weakness.
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