HomeReportsThe Match Out: Back-to-back strength for the ASX, Market…
Back-to-back strength for the Australian market with the ASX now up 350pts / 5.5% from the recent low ~6400. Energy the standout today as Oil rallied, reports of a price cap for Russian exports the catalyst while the headline in the AFR this afternoon that suggest investors are fleeing the share market for the ‘safety’ of property seems another bullish short-term indicator for equity markets!
The ASX reversed earlier gains in the final session of the month, dragged lower by an accelerating sell-off in gold and other resource stocks as hot money headed for the exits. The rally in this part of the market has been impressive, however when stocks and commodities start to go parabolic, aggressive, short, sharp pullbacks become more likely, and we’ve certainly seen that play out today. Using BHP as the proxy for the sector, the stock hit a new all-time high above $52 early on, before reversing to close lower. Golds were hit harder with Newmont (NEM) trading at $190 yesterday before closing ~$173 today.
The ASX 200 recovered from early steep losses yesterday to end Thursday's session down just -0.1%, the reverse of Wednesday's price action. It was another session of polarised performance, although most eyes on trading desks were glued to the prices of copper and gold, whose volatility was almost unprecedented. In the early afternoon, Chinese property stocks surged over +10% after Beijing News confirmed that authorities have softened the strict borrowing rules that had worsened China’s property crash. The impact on the related stocks of the ASX was huge. BHP Group (BHP) reversed early losses to advance +1.80%, while Sandfire Resources (SFR) surged, closing up +5.2% after copper popped 7% in a couple of hours following the news.
The ASX was lower on Thursday, with a firmer Aussie dollar and rising rate expectations combining to pressure risk assets. The main drag came from some pockets of the resource sector, particularly rare earths, after reports suggested the Trump administration may back away from a proposed price floor mechanism, a policy support that had been a key pillar behind the sector’s rerating since mid-2025.
The ASX 200 reversed early gains on Wednesday to end the day down -0.1%. A “hotter” than expected CPI accelerated the selling after 11.30 am as fears of an RBA rate hike next week intensified throughout the day.
The ASX surrendered early gains and finished mildly lower after a hotter-than-expected December CPI reading firmed market expectations of a February rate hike from the RBA.
The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday following strong trading by miners on overseas bourses, and it didn’t look back, closing up +0.9%, at its highest level since October when the index posted its all-time high. The charge higher by the local materials sectors is unrelenting, with yesterday’s +1.7% gain taking the sector up +10.8% year-to-date, and we’re still in January! The gains by some well-known names in 2026 have put the mining bulls in dreamland.
The ASX closed higher after a day off, buoyed by a powerful rally in precious and base metals stocks, with gold climbing to yet another all time high, now seemingly setting a new record every day, and Copper stocks chipping in too. While geopolitical noise remains in the background, the session had a risk-on feel as the rotation into resources showed no signs of slowing down with the index closing at its highest level since October.
Japan’s bond market has rattled global financial markets several times in recent years, and risks appear to be resurfacing. The most memorable yen carry-trade unwind since COVID started after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2024. The BOJ’s first rate hike came in March 2024, when it ended negative interest rates and lifted the policy rate to just 0–0.1%.
The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.5%, recovering from early weakness sparked by President Trump’s threats toward European allies tied to his ambitions around Greenland. While the rhetoric was quickly walked back at Davos, the episode was a reminder of how abruptly geopolitical risk can re-emerge. Yet markets largely shrugged it off, highlighting their resilience to headline-driven volatility. The “buy-the-dip” trade — closely tied to the so-called “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) — continues to deliver, at least for now. The market may feel unsettled to many, but it's still up +1.7% year-to-date, dragged higher by a robust materials sector, which has already surged +9.3% in 2026.
The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.5%, recovering from early weakness sparked by President Trump’s threats toward European allies tied to his ambitions around Greenland. While the rhetoric was quickly walked back at Davos, the episode was a reminder of how abruptly geopolitical risk can re-emerge. Yet markets largely shrugged it off, highlighting their resilience to headline-driven volatility. The “buy-the-dip” trade — closely tied to the so-called “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) — continues to deliver, at least for now. The market may feel unsettled to many, but it's still up +1.7% year-to-date, dragged higher by a robust materials sector, which has already surged +9.3% in 2026.
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