HomeReportsThe Match Out: ASX moves up on weekend trade deals,…
The ASX closed higher on Monday as global markets rallied on the back of a new US-EU trade deal, a lower tariff of 15% vs 30% widely expected, as well as signs the US-China tariff truce may be extended for an additional 90 days.
The ASX200 haemorrhaged on Tuesday, closing down 123-points or 1.3%, as weak US futures, and a cautious Michelle Bullock broke the market's stubborn resistance - the local 3-year yield surged 0.15% during our day session following the RBA chiefs’ hawkish comments. We discussed the drop in bonds (yields higher) yesterday afternoon - Here. The move in bonds weighed on rate-sensitive stocks/sector, with the consumer discretionary, real estate and tech sectors all underperforming the main board, and closing down by more than 2% - more of the same is likely this morning after bonds fell further overnight, although they did bounce into the close. However, losses were broad-based on Tuesday, with almost 75% of the market closing down on the day.
The ASX was hit today, unwinding yesterday’s strong recovery from the lows, with commentary from RBA Chair Michelle Bullock at an AFR event dovetailing into higher oil prices driving a sharp increase in local bond yields on firming rate hike expectations at the next meeting.
The ASX200 was firm on Monday, shrugging off the conflict in the Middle East to close marginally higher, trading and closing above 9200 for the first time - not a good day for the bears! The index clawed back early losses as heavyweight miners rebounded from initial weakness to push firmly into positive territory. BHP led from the front, rallying over $2 from its early low to end the session up +1.4% at another all-time high, adding 14-points to the index on its own. By the close, the Materials and Energy Sector combined to add 67-points to the main board, offsetting the 55-point negative contribution from the financials as the story remained the same on the performance front.
The ASX was hit early on the Iran conflict, down ~1% before recovering as the day progressed to finish a couple of points higher – not a great day for the bears who sold early. US Futures were trading down 1% at the outset, and while they recovered ~0.20% throughout the session, the resilience by the ASX was impressive, underpinned by Gold, Energy & defensives.
Over the weekend, the US and Israel have launched coordinated strikes on hundreds of Iranian military targets, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defences and missile sites, in an effort to cripple Tehran’s capabilities and halt its nuclear ambitions, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-linked targets across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, although regional defences intercepted most threats. The escalation has heightened fears of a broader Middle East war, with airspace closures and rising geopolitical tensions.
Last week was again volatile at the stock level as the local reporting season drew to a close, but the index forged ahead, absorbing what was thrown at it and closing up 1.3% at a new all-time high. The materials sector continued to do the heavy lifting, closing up +7.4%, ably supported by the consumer staples, which ended up 5%, while the retailers were a notable weak link with the consumer discretionary sector ending the week down 3.3%. With BHP surging more than $5, also closing at an all-time high on Friday, the market enjoyed a huge uplift from the “Big Australian” while beats trumped misses, which bodes well through 2026, although there were some standouts in both camps.
ASX experienced a quiet Friday managing to firm into the close ending the week at another all-time high. But again, there was still plenty of volatility on the stock level as we approach the end of reporting season.
The ASX 200 posted another all-time high on Thursday, closing up +0.5% after flirting with the psychological 9200 level in the morning. IT stocks led gains, with the sector surging +5.2% amid a broad-based rally that saw 7 of 11 sectors trade higher. Health care rebounded 1.6% following recent weakness, supported by a strong interim result from Ramsay Health Care. The miners again provided meaningful support, rising 1.0% and pushing to fresh highs as BHP extended its record run, trading above $58 for the first time - even after closing 50c below its intra-day high Australia’s biggest stock added more than 20 points to the index, or more than 40% of the day's gain.
The ASX pushed to another record close, extending its February rally with a strong bounce back in tech on a positive read through from Nvidia’s result, and the vast majority of companies reporting better than hoped earnings.
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