Portfolio Positioning: Bond yields weigh heavily on stocks after the Fed

The last few weeks have seen bond yields test new decade highs, the Australian 10-year closed above 4.4% on Tuesday. Stocks have struggled through September as yields climbed higher, in our opinion, primarily because most investors had positioned themselves for rate cuts in 2024 that now seem a pipe dream. i.e. the crowd was wrong. At MM, we continue to believe that the current decline by local bonds (yields higher) will ultimately fail, but after breaching their support that’s held since June 2022, moves into Christmas are probably in the hands of US Treasuries.

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Afternoon report 25/08/2025 17:01

The Match Out: ASX jumps then dumps as profit takers pile in

The ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a high of 9054 before sellers got engaged, pushing the index down ~70pts from the early high. While the structure of the market still remains clearly bullish, we stick with our more neutral bias on stocks around all-time highs, and today's selling into strength, supports that view.

Morning report 25/08/2025 09:28

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much-anticipated speech from Jackson Hole on Friday to signal that the US central bank is on track for an interest-rate cut in September, after holding its benchmark steady in the first eight months of the year. The market reaction was instantaneous, with Powell unleashing the biggest cross-market surge since April by striking a surprisingly dovish tone during his speech. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from a five-day slide, rising +1.5%; meanwhile, the rate/economically-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index surged almost 4%.

Weekend report 23/08/2025 08:53

Weekend Q&A: The Bull ASX200 cracks 9000 as volatility erupts on the stock level

The ASX200 fell away on Friday to close down 0.6%, with the heavyweight miners and banks largely reversing early gains to close lower. The index still managed to end the week up +0.3%, but it failed to hold above the psychological 9000 level, with healthcare, and especially CSL, weighing heavily. The week, as expected, was dominated by the reporting season, with “misses” treated a touch more severely than beats were embraced. However, that’s no major surprise with the index posting all-time highs as often as it rains in Sydney!

Afternoon report 22/08/2025 16:52

The Match Out: Reporting knocks stocks from all-time highs

The market tapered off as the day progressed with the ASX giving back half of yesterday's strong move – as reporting season roles on. More misses than hits today with some big moves playing out as a consequence.

Morning report 22/08/2025 09:25

ETF Friday: Looking into the growing Buffer ETF market

The ASX 200 surged over 100 points on Thursday to close above the 9000 level for the first time, who would have thought back in April? All 11 major sectors closed higher as the bulls got the bit between their teeth, and sellers were very stock-specific.

Afternoon report 21/08/2025 18:07

The Match Out: ASX cracks 9,000 as earnings results fuel all sectors higher

The ASX opened strongly and surged past the 9000 mark for the first time around midday, rallying on the back of broad-based gains as all 11 sectors finished in positive territory. Solid results from Super Retail and Brambles kicked off proceedings with broker upgrades on stocks that have already come through providing more firepower.

Morning report 22/08/2025 14:05

What Matters Today: Three potential landmines to report next week

The ASX200 closed up +0.25% on Wednesday, which was impressive considering James Hardie (JHX) was thumped ~28%, and CSL extended Tuesday's decline by another 2.1%.

Afternoon report 20/08/2025 17:32

The Match Out: Banks do it again, drive ASX up, JHX hit on soft FY26 outlook

The ASX opened weaker but staged a sharp 77-point rally through midday, before easing back in the afternoon as US futures turned lower. Heavy selling in James Hardie and ongoing pressure on CSL weighed on materials and healthcare though strength in the Big Four banks, all up 1-4% more than offset weakness.

Morning report 20/08/2025 09:38

Portfolio Positioning: CSL hogs the limelight as reporting season gathers momentum

The ASX200 fell 0.7% on Tuesday, with healthcare behemoth CSL inflicting all of the damage to the index; more stocks finished the session up on the day! However, when the market's third-largest company by market capitalisation at the start of the day tumbled almost 17% to end the day as the fifth-largest, it inevitably had a meaningful impact on the underlying index. To paint a clear picture, the ASX200 closed down 63 points, with CSL contributing 65 points on the negative side of the ledger - more on CSL later.

Afternoon report 19/08/2025 17:59

The Match Out: Rocks and diamonds for the ASX today

Rocks and diamonds for the ASX today on the reporting front, with some very strong updates from the majority of companies, then came CSL, finishing down 16.9% and taking 65 points off the market i.e. excluding CSL from the equation, the market would have finished flat.