Archives: Reports
Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.
The local market is now on a 4-day losing streak – its worst run since January (5 sessions) – with today being the worst of the batch. As we said this morning, US stocks are leading the weakness, having fallen for six consecutive days; their worst losing streak since June. Equities were on the back foot early following a soft session overnight, stemming from strong-than-expected retail sales numbers, which put pressure on rate cut expectations. Early buyers were hurt today with the market not “feeling right all day”, come the close, 92% of the ASX200 finished down, and not surprisingly, all sectors finished lower today, though there was some relief late in the session as the index closed 27pts / 0.35% off the lows.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has banned the delivery of Russian metal following tough sanctions imposed by the US and UK. The LME is a central market for metals such as aluminium, copper, and zinc. If the supply taps are turned off, prices will likely rise as they did overnight, e.g. over 90% of the aluminium on the LME is of Russian origin. However, prices have a tendency, just like water, to move in the path of least resistance and with plenty of buyers still happy to take delivery of Russian metal, by whatever means, advances are likely to be controlled in nature, assuming they do occur.
An escalation of aggression in the Middle East over the weekend was the main cause for concern today, weighing on the local market from the get-go. The weakness didn’t cause any contagion though, equities seemed pretty well supported after hitting a low just before midday, i.e. panic didn’t set in and traders are still using dips to edge into the ASX. Energy was the main winner today, that was despite Oil markets giving back some of the gains seen on Friday night. Materials were also surprisingly well-supported thanks to US imposing further sanctions on Russian commodities, a trade we are well-positioned for.
Iran and a number of its allies launched a large-scale drone and missile attack upon Israel on Saturday night in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria. The prospects of a full-blown conflict in the region have increased dramatically over the last week, with at least nine countries involved in Saturday’s conflict, projectiles fired from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen were downed by Israel, the US and France, as well as Jordan. Following Iran’s attack, the U.S. pledged “ironclad” backing for Israel, but President Joe Biden made it clear the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The ASX200 edged higher last week even though eight of the eleven main sectors closed lower. The influential Resources Sector’s strong performance allowed the local market to eke out a +0.2% gain, while the rate-sensitive Real Estate Sector led the declines, ending the week down -2.7%. Investors had to weigh up some very conflicting news flow on the US inflation front, with a strong CPI on Wednesday night denting hopes of three rate cuts before Christmas before a tame PPI soothed inflation concerns, which was helped by ongoing dovish commentary from a number of Fed officials, both past and present.
A choppy, range bound session on the ASX today with little conviction in either direction as we head into the weekend, and the start of School Holidays in NSW which leads to weaker volumes across the market.
We are adding a new position to the Active Income Portfolio
As subscribers may have read, NEXTDC (NXT) is tapping the market for $1.3bn; some investors might be tempted to fund the raise by the data centre operator with other ASX tech names, hence today’s report. Last night’s +1.65% surge by the NASDAQ-100 illustrated there’s still plenty of life left in the sector, especially if we do see the Fed and ECB start cutting rates this year. For all of the talk around excessive valuations and sticky inflation, the US tech sector is still less than 1% below its all-time high.
Stocks were hit early on the back of the hotter inflation print in the US overnight, the ASX down ~100pts at its worst, before a spirited/impressive recovery played out, underpinned by the resources & energy sectors while the Staples also played their part. This sort of market action is indicative of a strong market, where negative news gets a short sharp reaction, but ultimately the weight of money remains on the buy side.
