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The Aussie market struggled without a lead today – US & UK markets closed overnight – so we chopped around in a tight trading range on low volumes, failing to embrace the positive move from US Futures.
At MM, we adopt a “top-down” meets “bottom-up approach” to investing. In other words, we identify the macro-picture and sectors which should outperform accordingly before boring down into the individual stocks which should benefit the most and pass MMs screening. Importantly, within individual sectors there are many different companies exposed to different drivers, and this is certainly the case in Energy sector where the likes of Thermal Coal, Oil, Gas and Uranium, can all be pulling in different directions at once.
Shares mirrored Friday night’s move in the US, starting the week on the front foot, turning around the bulk of the weakness seen on the local market last week. The rally was fairly broad-based with 75% of the index closing higher and Energy the only detractor from a sector point of view. There was little else to watch today given both US and UK markets are closed tonight.
The weakness across the ASX on Thursday and Friday was severe enough to leave MM questioning our short-term bullish outlook for stocks, but this morning, the local index is set to regain its composure and open up +0.6%. Some US indices tested fresh all-time highs on Friday night, an impressive effort following the hawkish Fed Minutes earlier in the week. Credit markets have largely taken a Fed rate cut off the table for September, while two cuts by January are now considered far from certain, yet equities continue to advance.
The ASX200 slipped -1.1% last week, although it felt much worse on Thursday and Friday as profit-taking swept through the Resources Sector following steep corrections in copper and gold. The catalyst for the move into the weekend was the release of the Fed Minutes from April 30th – May 1st, in other words, a great insight into the current thinking of Jerome Powell et al. The meeting came hot on the heels of a deluge of economic data that demonstrated inflation was remaining sticky
A soft session for the ASX to round off a volatile week for equities, a mixture of macro uncertainty around interest rates and a pullback in commodity prices, coupled with a bunch of results/trading updates that were a mixed bag at best.
US stocks endured a tough day at the office overnight, with the Real Estate and Utilities faring the worst after the Fed minutes saw investors reduce bets for rate cuts into 2025. Also, we saw firm economic data, which compounded the nervousness post Fed with Services and Manufacturing data printing strongly. Nvidia (NVDA US) soared after delivering a solid earnings beat, but it wasn’t enough to turn around the concerns arising from the Fed Minutes – note that the stock is to undergo a 10-1 split; hence, it won’t be trading above $US1,000 for long!
A big pullback in commodities overnight cast a shadow over the ASX early – the market off ~84pts at its low, however, some aggressive buying of the dip more than cut that loss in half, the index only mildly lower by the close.
Cutting losses defines a portfolio’s performance as much as picking winners; hence, this morning, we revisited the 3 stocks in our Active Growth Portfolio that are in the worst shape on paper. Taking a loss is never fun, but it’s all part of investing and an area that many seem to struggle with. We’ve gotten better at it over the years and approach the decision with very little emotion, and we hope to pass that ability onto our readers. We run real money portfolio’s published on the Market Matters Website and members can see our recent sales at the bottom of each portfolio going back several years, although there are few we would rather not be reminded of!
It was a flat session for the ASX today, although a lot was happening under the hood with a bunch of trading updates causing some big moves on both sides of the ledger. Early strength was sold into as equities shied away from a crack at all-time highs today.
