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Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX falls as retail and banks weigh, gold and copper lift Materials

The ASX started the week on the back foot, with eight of 11 sectors lower as reporting season drove a sixth decline in seven sessions. Consumer Discretionary was the clear laggard, with a notable result from JB Hi-Fi sending waves through the broader retail complex after weakening sales momentum, while financials also weighed as NAB disappointed with its quarterly amid lower home loan application volumes. Materials provided the major offset, rebounding after three sessions of weakness as gold, copper and lithium rallied.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: ASX earnings are being outshone by corporate America

The latest US earnings season propelled the S&P 500 to fresh highs last week, delivering the strongest first-half earnings growth since the post-COVID rebound of 2021. Moving forward, consensus expects the 1H26 earnings boom to moderate but remain solidly positive, +10.5% in 1H27 and +15.0% in 1H28 (see orange below), suggesting the market anticipates a sustained, if more normalised, earnings expansion cycle rather than a one-off spike. If we look at the numbers in an even more granular fashion, it's not surprising US indices are posting fresh highs.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The first chapter of the ASX reporting season has been mixed

The ASX 200 fell 1.6% last week, testing 9100 on Friday after threatening to break above 9300 on Tuesday. While the early read from local earnings seasons failed to match their US peers, it was the influential banks and miners that combined to drag the index lower - for the week, heavyweights CBA (-6.1%), Westpac (-6.8%), BHP Group (-2.6%), and RIO Tinto (-5.7%) all weighed on the local bourse.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Are equities benefiting from the recent Federal Budget?

The ASX 200 ended a choppy session on Thursday down 0.2% with reporting again weighing on the index, although losses were fairly muted considering only 30% of the main board closed higher, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) fell by over 2%. Yesterday saw the banks put in a very mixed performance, with ANZ adding ~16 points to the index while CBA more than offset the good work, taking over 20 points off the ASX 200. It was a refreshing change to see ANZ rally post its result, with the bank less exposed than CBA and Westpac to the current housing slowdown.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Reporting season kicks into gear, ASX closes lower

The ASX 200 finished lower, recovering from a decline of around 0.7% earlier in the session as a blockbuster day of reporting continued to drive a highly mixed market. Breadth was weak for much of the day, with the index improving through the afternoon as some of the pressure on the major banks eased.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is it time to revisit Defence Stocks after Austal’s takeover bid?

The ASX 200 struggled on Wednesday as reporting season weighed on sentiment and the index; it's only early days, but we’re seeing a very different story emerge locally compared to the recent season in the US. The S&P 500's 2Q26 earnings season is essentially complete and has been strong, while the ASX 200's August reporting season has only just begun, but with less than 10% of companies having faced the music, the early signs are not overly encouraging.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX slips as busy reporting day delivers winners and losers in equal measure

The ASX spent Wednesday firmly on the back foot, opening around 0.4% lower before selling accelerated through the morning as investors digested another heavy batch of results alongside yesterday’s hawkish RBA rhetoric. At the lows, around 70% of the index was trading in the red and all but one sector lower, before a steady move through the afternoon helped to claw back some ground.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA holds rates at 4.35%, but inflation is still too high

The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on Tuesday, supported by the RBA leaving rates unchanged, as was expected. The accompanying rhetoric from Michelle Bullock also contained no hidden surprises, with the bond & FX markets hardly moving bar a brief relief spike when no hike was announced. The RBA remains understandably cautious as they weigh a soft property market versus sticky inflation. However, credit markets are slowly but surely painting a more supportive picture for stocks.

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A solid session locally, with the ASX 200 gaining 0.52% despite US futures remaining slightly lower. The move had the hallmarks of futures-led buying in Australia, with the SPI strengthening through the afternoon and broad gains across consumer discretionary, communications and healthcare, while the major banks also provided support.

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