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The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week’s Macro Monday Report.
The ASX 200 finished mildly lower, recovering from early weakness to close near breakeven as strength in the banks and consumer discretionary stocks offset a sharp selloff in technology. Markets spent much of the session digesting conflicting headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations, with oil prices reversing an early rally as hopes for further diplomatic progress emerged out of the Lake Lucerne Summit this morning.
The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
After a strong start to the week, which saw the ASX200 rally back towards the 9,000 level, the local market reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday, trimming gains to finish the week up just +0.3%. The damage was done by the combination of hawkish commentary from the Fed’s new Chair, Kevin Warsh, and a more than 5% plunge by heavyweight BHP Group (ASX: BHP) on Friday after its Canadian Potash Project saw costs blow out by US$2.3bn.
The ASX endured its weakest session in a fortnight today, with a sharp selloff across the resources complex. The market opened lower and never really looked like bouncing, drifting steadily lower through the day as investors responded to a stronger US dollar, a more hawkish Federal Reserve and renewed pressure across commodity markets.
The ASX200 ended its 4-day rally on Thursday, with 65% of the main board closing lower after the US Fed held interest rates in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but signalled that tightening may be necessary to rein in inflation. It was a relatively muted session for the local bourse with only five stocks moving by more than 5%, although they were all in the losers’ corner, primarily from the gold space.
The ASX 200 fell away throughout the session as Federal Reserve policymakers under new chair Kevin Warsh signalled the chance of a rate hike later this year, hitting tech, financials and rate-sensitive growth names. Defensives held up best, with Consumer Staples and Healthcare the only sectors to post a meaningful gain, while Energy, Materials and IT led the market lower. Oil extended its slide as the US-Iran deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz raised hopes for a quick return of Gulf supply, while gold and iron ore stayed under pressure from firmer US rate expectations underpinning a rise in the $US.
We are making two changes to the Growth Portfolio today
The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, again reversing higher from early weakness to end the session up +0.6%, at a 2-month high and only a few points below the psychological 9000 level. It was a clear “risk on” session with only the defensive-oriented consumer staples and utilities sectors closing lower, along with the energy sector, which was weighed down by crude’s inability to recover any of its recent ~15% drop over the last five days. From a points perspective, it was the heavyweight financials and miners that performed the heavy lifting, a very encouraging combination for the bulls.
The ASX shook off a weak start to finish firmly higher today, extending its recent recovery as investors continued rotating out of energy and into resources, financials and growth exposures. The market opened lower before steadily improving through the session, with buying increasing into the afternoon as optimism around US-Iran agreements accelerated with a proper framework and further details of the deal expected imminently.
