Archives: Reports
In the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” and predicted a new “golden age” in America – financial markets do not agree. On Friday night, he compounded market fears by stating that his decision to hike US tariffs to their highest levels in over a century would not change, despite sparking a global market meltdown.
Financial markets went into “Panic Mode” on Friday night after China’s commerce ministry announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. products, disappointing investors who had hoped countries would negotiate with Trump. Xi Jinping has reacted “harder and faster” than markets expected, causing markets to plunge in a matter of seconds as fears of a Global Trade War escalated. Our take is Trump may be out of his depth; this is not a property deal. This feels like the US (Trump) versus the rest of the world! Selling intensified into the close on the fear, as we go into the weekend, that the trade war will escalate when the markets are closed, and the US doesn’t back down; it is very hard to see the US obtaining a good result from here, and Trump keeping face.
Some significant moves playing out across equity markets today, with ~70 stocks in the ASX 200 down more than 5% led by the high beta names, Macquarie (MQG) -9% indicative of the weakness, falling the most since 2022.
The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Thursday, a win compared to the melt-down unfolding across global markets. The key takeaway from Trump’s much-discussed global tariffs is that the US now risks a recession this year, and inflation could surge, a worrying combination for equities. The only positive on the day was that markets have increased bets that the Fed will cut rates further through 2025 despite the possible uptick in inflation. Credit markets are now pricing in nearly four rate cuts by the Fed into Christmas. Ironically, US equities and the dollar bore some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy, which is certainly understandable – tariffs are ultimately bad for growth, the US looks to have kicked an own goal, for now at least.
We are buying a new stock in the International Equities Portfolio
The market opened down ~166pts this morning post the tariff news, weighted down by a sell-off in US Futures which fell 3.5% for the S&P and 4.5% for the Nasdaq. By the close of trade, we’d recovered ~100pts of the early decline with US Futures paring ~30% of their losses. Asian markets were down, but they improved from the initial knee-jerk lows with Hong Kong stocks giving the best indication of the reaction in Asia, the Hang Seng off –1.6% around our close.
We’ve now reacted to Trumps Tariff roll out, with markets selling off, though it’s not too bad at this stage, and there is some buying of weakness around.
As a refresher, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports entering the U.S, with significantly steeper duties imposed on several key trading partners. The blanket tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on 5th April (this Saturday).
We are adding to a position in the Active Growth Portfolio this morning
After promising so much to make “America Wealthy Again.” Donald Trump walked out into the Rose Garden of the White House with all the world watching, an environment he revelled in. Markets have been on edge for weeks, anticipating the likely imposition of worldwide tariffs. At 7 am AEST, US indices ended up strongly ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech, in the hope that the blanket of uncertainty would be lifted by the speech he proudly titled “The Declaration of Economic Independence Day.”
The market opened nicely higher this morning, though nerves quickly set in ahead of a pivotal day in the U.S with President Trump scheduled to tell all on tariffs from the White House Rose Garden at 7am AEDT. The ASX 200 finished -44pts below session highs.
