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The ASX 200 rallied 0.8% on Wednesday, but the index wasn’t where the real action was. It was a tale of two sectors: strong buying across the miners, and aggressive selling in software stocks. Concerns around AI disruption reverberated through global markets on Tuesday night, and the local names weren’t spared yesterday; if anything, they magnified the losses with most stocks closing on their intraday low as money poured into the more tangible resources stocks.
The ASX wavered on the open but ultimately surged higher as a rebound in commodities dragged the market into positive territory, offsetting a sharp sell-off across high-multiple tech stocks which have faced unrelenting pressure on concerns around AI-driven disruption.
The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday, embracing strong gains on Wall Street and a bounce across influential metal stocks, helping the material sector post a 1.5% gain. Interestingly, the embattled tech sector also enjoyed a rare day in the sun, gaining +1.9%. It’s not often that an RBA rate hike has to vie for the market’s attention, but that was the case yesterday as there was little surprise from Michelle Bullock et al while the precious metal rollercoaster kept riding high – gold traded in a relatively quiet $US330/oz range over the last 24-hours, absurd compared to its historical volatility.
The ASX steadied itself through what was a choppy session, with a quick –35pt index selloff coming straight off the back of the first RBA rate-hike since 2023. Despite the initial reaction, a slow and steady grind higher helped to recover lost ground into the close.
Monday saw the ASX 200 open sharply lower and continue to fall throughout most of the day as the miners were smacked following the aggressive selling in the US on Friday. The weakness extended during our day session, with silver down another 10% in the afternoon. The weakness in the mining stocks was by far the biggest drag on the ASX200, with the materials sectors 3.1% decline wiping 68-points off the main board, or 75% of the days 1% drop. The falls across the resource names were significant, considering the losses already endured on Friday:
The ASX suffered its worst fall of the year so far, as much as –122pts intra-day, led by a sharp sell-off in gold and oil stocks, before a +30pt bounce softened the blow late in the session.
Recent years have seen a sharp rise in crowded trades as momentum investing has come into vogue. But as so often happens when the music stops playing, conviction can evaporate in an instant. In the blink of an eye, trillions can be wiped out as investors and traders stampede toward the same narrow exit.
The ASX 200 ended the short week up just +0.2%, but the volatility over the 4-days was more than many months! The energy and materials sectors were again the top performers, but Friday’s savage 100-point reversal dented many of the previous high flyers, while the rate-sensitive consumer discretionary and tech sectors fought over the wooden spoon, again.
This week is likely to be a very different market following the confirmed nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, taking over from Jerome Powell. Warsh is seen as more inclined than other finalists to guard against rising price pressures, a stance that would translate into monetary policy that is supportive of the US dollar. That saw the $US push up nearly 1% sending Gold & other commodities sharply lower. Gold experienced a top-to-bottom $US900/oz plunge overnight which will have the miners on the back foot on Monday,
The ASX reversed earlier gains in the final session of the month, dragged lower by an accelerating sell-off in gold and other resource stocks as hot money headed for the exits. The rally in this part of the market has been impressive, however when stocks and commodities start to go parabolic, aggressive, short, sharp pullbacks become more likely, and we’ve certainly seen that play out today. Using BHP as the proxy for the sector, the stock hit a new all-time high above $52 early on, before reversing to close lower. Golds were hit harder with Newmont (NEM) trading at $190 yesterday before closing ~$173 today.
The ASX 200 recovered from early steep losses yesterday to end Thursday’s session down just -0.1%, the reverse of Wednesday’s price action. It was another session of polarised performance, although most eyes on trading desks were glued to the prices of copper and gold, whose volatility was almost unprecedented. In the early afternoon, Chinese property stocks surged over +10% after Beijing News confirmed that authorities have softened the strict borrowing rules that had worsened China’s property crash. The impact on the related stocks of the ASX was huge. BHP Group (BHP) reversed early losses to advance +1.80%, while Sandfire Resources (SFR) surged, closing up +5.2% after copper popped 7% in a couple of hours following the news.
