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The ASX is in a holding pattern it seems ahead of a barrage of Central Bank activity headlined by the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday), the Bank of England (Thursday) before Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda steps up to the plate on Friday. That saw the ASX open on the back foot this morning and there was no reason to bid up stocks ahead of what are very important decisions on interest rates that will likely have a major impact on how markets trade into the back end of the year.
Both pre and post-COVID the banks and insurers have followed a relatively similar path although there was a period of major outperformance by the Banks through 2021, and early 2022. The banking index in a similar fashion to the ASX, has trod water over the last two years while the insurers have ground higher. Hence we question today whether the likes of QBE & IAG will prove a better investment into 2024 and beyond, especially with some economists concerned by the dramatically named “mortgage cliff” although it hasn’t called any major issues so far.
Friday’s rally seems a distant memory with the ASX coming back to earth with a thud, giving back around half the gains made in the prior session as IT stocks keyed off weakness in the US courtesy of higher Treasury yields to lead todays weakness.
The ASX200 is almost flat after a fascinating first half of September, although under the hood, it’s a very different story, with the Energy Index up +3.6% while the Real Estate sector is down -3.2%. Unfortunately for the index, the heavyweight financials and materials sectors are also positive, while the other eight sectors are all negative to date for September. As we keep saying, until further notice, most of the excitement into 2024 will be on the stock and sector level.
We’re halfway through September, the seasonally weakest month of the year for the local market, and it’s so far so good, with the ASX200 down just -0.4% following Fridays +1.3% advance. The Materials Sector sprang to life after the PBOC cut reserve requirements, MM we’ve been waiting for Beijing to pull the stimulus lever, which would have investors believing that the world’s second-largest economy can return to solid economic growth – We may have just witnessed this very catalyst last week. By the end of the week, 8 of the market’s 11 sectors had closed higher, but it was the +3.9% move by the Materials Index which helped catapult the ASX200 up +1.7%, the Financials came in a distant second up +2.5%.
The stars aligned for a strong finish to the week, and the ASX delivered with its best one-day rally in more than 8 weeks today. All sectors were higher today, led by a resurgent materials sector thanks to strong commodity prices. It was a very broad-based rally today with 80% of the ASX200 finishing higher with money keen to pile into the market. The index posted a gain of 122pts/+1.71% this week, recouping the losses of last week.
Uranium stocks have surged higher over the last 48 hours and we believe this is a move to embrace, not fade – remember our very bullish outlook in the MM Resources into FY24 webinar. The uranium price has more than doubled over recent months, posting fresh decade highs in the process. It’s a straightforward game of supply & demand that has reached a tipping point as Utilities that have been drawing down inventory levels suddenly have to chase supply.
After a muted open, shares were well supported on the local index today. It seems buyers held back yesterday with the US Inflation data last night, but once that print had passed, it was mostly a one-way street higher. Resources were the main contributors, helped by a strong iron ore price which continues to defy the bears. Banks were also well supported, particularly following strong local jobs data.
Not surprisingly, the correlation between the S&P500 Energy Sector and the crude oil price has been very strong since well before COVID but since Q4 of 2022 stocks have noticeably outperformed and are starting to feel stretched in comparison. Also, the Energy Sector has become a favourite of quant models/fund managers over the last few years as it grinds ever higher against a choppy and uncertain backdrop.
The market was on edge today ahead of the US inflation read tonight which is expected to show headline CPI of 3.6% for August, up from 3.2% in July due to higher energy prices, testing the narrative that inflation has peaked and so too have interest rates. So, some risk off today throughout Asia while US Futures offered little in the way of support.
