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We previously considered healthcare stocks a few months ago, with our conclusion a little on the fence – “We believe the Healthcare Sector is likely to enjoy some performance catch-up over the coming months/quarters, although there’s no clear trigger to say the moves yet commenced. “ This potential move clearly hasn’t materialised, and in a similar fashion to the last few years, patience with regard to picking major stock/sector turns is paying dividends. We know from the questions we receive that subscribers often like to buy stocks that have fallen, but we should be mindful that this is not in a rampant bull market where investors are looking to buy any dip, the attitude is more one of caution and “if in doubt keep out”.
A quiet but (marginally) positive session played out in Oz today with the banks and miners supporting the broader index, while the Healthcare sector continues to struggle, news overnight knocking the sector again today. US CPI Inflation due for release tonight will be telling and could dictate market trends from here, just as bond yields are starting to cool.
For months, we’ve been reading that the rising cost of living, whether at the supermarket, petrol pump or higher mortgage repayments/rents, was going to push the economy into recession, but this hasn’t unfolded, although some discretionary spending has been streamlined by the consumer – not a good time to be selling smashed avocado breakfasts. The combination of substantial pandemic savings and a very strong jobs market has sheltered many households, but the latest surge in bond yields is starting to bite, with fixed mortgages having kicked from ~2% to around 6.5%. Unfortunately, we are now in the middle of the largest number of fixed mortgages rolling into painfully higher rates.
A positive session for the ASX, its fifth in a row with the market bouncing well from the bottom of its trading range as pressure on bond yields eased underpinning broad based buying across equities, 75% of the main board finished up on the session and no sector finishing down.
Tuesday was a strong day for local stocks, with over 85% of the main board closing higher with all 11 sectors contributing to the solid gain of just over +1%. Utilities and Tech stocks were the best on the ground, with the latter closing up over +3%, while the lithium names also finally found some love, Pilbara (PLS) surged over 6% after Citi upgraded a number in the space, including PLS, Core Lithium (CXO) and IGO Ltd (IGO).
A solid session for stocks today, buoyed by a positive overseas lead along with further local data that suggests price pressures are easing taking the pressure off inflation and thus interest rates. All sectors finished higher on the session with 85% of the main board ending in the green, pushing the ASX 200 back up through 7000, all the more impressive given our two largest sectors lagged the broader advance.
We wouldn’t attempt to guess how the horrendous situation in the Middle East will evolve over the coming days/weeks, but I’m sure everybody will be hoping for a quick resolution without much further loss of life. Unfortunately, it’s a very difficult and tense situation that may see Israel rapidly push back Hamas and regain control of their territories, but it’s unlikely to end there with a potential invasion of Gaza on the cards while the neighbouring countries hope for Israel to fail – whatever the outcome we feel the region will carry a renewed “risk factor” for many months to come.
The ASX was higher today (+16pts), though it finished up less than SPI Futures (+58pts) had implied on Saturday morning, the atrocious attacks by Hamas within Israel over the weekend that left hundreds dead has created another level of complexity, leading to higher Oil & Gold prices across Asia today, while we all hope and pray for a quick resolution, it appears unlikely.
The ASX200 was set to pop back above 7000 this morning following a very impressive Friday session on Wall Street, which saw stocks shrug off a very strong non-farm payrolls number (employment data). Obviously, after the events over the weekend, it’s harder to predict what lays in store this morning, but we still believe stocks are looking for, or have found a low, and are set to rally into Christmas; hence, we are “buyers of dips as opposed to sellers of strength” until further notice.
October has started in a very similar vein to September, with the ASX200 already down -1.3% as rising long-term bond yields continue to rattle equities. Over the last week, all eleven sectors closed lower with little respite for the bulls, with the index breaking to fresh lows for 2023, led by weakness in the energy and consumer discretionary names. It was a tough start to the new month for the MM Flagship Growth Portfolio, which holds a few of the standout losers last week courtesy of the aggressive “risk off” sentiment:
