Archives: Reports
We had a significant number of questions come in over the break, and we couldn’t include them all in the usual Weekend Q&A on Saturday. Here’s a special Monday follow up report, with additional Q&A.
Global equities have maintained their bullish advance, which started back in October 2022. There have been plenty of reasons for risk assets to roll over in recent years, from wars to an embattled Chinese economy and surging interest rates, but stocks have continued to rally – plenty of pundits are licking their wounds at the start of 2024. As we often say at MM, a market that can advance on “bad news” is a strong market that should be respected.
Most years in January, we remind subscribers that indices often form important pivot points in the first few months of the year on the stock, sector and index level, e.g. the ASX200 formed an important top in 2020,2022 and 2023 and a low in 2019 and 2021.
Local equities snapped a 5-session losing streak today, rounding out a soft few days to bounce into the weekend. Supported by strength overnight, the ASX200 hit a high of 7446 early, up +100pts on the session but the move tempered into the afternoon. Still, the 74pt gain today was the best session for the index in more than a month, led by Tech and Healthcare. Utilities were the only sector to finish the session lower. The ASX200 fell -1% this week, a soft Materials sector being the main drag.
We are less than three weeks into 2024, and it’s evident that today’s market is focusing more on the micro/stock news as opposed to the macro, at least for now. The US NASDAQ registered fresh all-time highs overnight, even as Fed members attempt to rein in the market’s optimism with regard to rate cuts in 2024, i.e. a market that rallies on bad news is a strong market. At MM, we have been bullish towards tech for over twelve months, targeting the recent advance by the “magnificent seven.”
The sell-off on the ASX continued today, although the morning session saw the worst of it, with the market down ~70 points just after the open, before buying the dip played out initially, with that trend continuing as employment data came in softer than expected at 11.30 am, good for the prospect of rate cuts and therefore good for stocks, and that saw a choppy session end at the mid-point of the day’s trading range.
We are amending the Active Growth Portfolio
Gold stocks have disappointed investors over the last forty-eight hours, with Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Evolution (EVN) delivering poor production numbers, pushing up unit costs, which unfortunately has been a consistent thematic over recent years. The issues with some of the heavyweight gold stocks have been painfully reflected by their share prices; even as gold tests its all-time high, both GOLD & EVN have more than halved from their post-COVID high – good job, gold hasn’t fallen! MM has been overweight gold through 2023, which has delivered a reasonable return but nothing like our positioning in uranium stocks, illustrating that picking the macro picture is just one part of the puzzle.
Gold stocks copped it on the chin following a pullback in Gold prices overnight and weaker-than-expected production numbers from sector pin-up Evolution Mining (EVN) today, continuing a soft period for the resources sector more generally. The $US rallied overnight on higher bond yields, a Fed Governor suggesting that priced rate cuts in the United States are simply too excessive, a view we concur with. Upward pressure on the greenback puts downward pressure on commodities, although this is a move we would fade rather than follow.
MM is tweaking the Active Growth Portfolio
