Archives: Reports
Yesterday saw Iron Ore plunge to its lowest level since May 2023 as China Baowu Steel Group Corp, the world’s largest steelmaker, warned of a crisis ahead in China, increasing concerns about demand just as major miners boost output. Futures of the bulk commodity subsequently dropped in Singapore for the sixth time in seven days. Hu Wangming, chairman of China Baowu Steel Group Corp., said the sector now faced a crisis more painful than the downturns of 2008 and 2015, likening conditions to a “severe winter” and highlighting a need to preserve cash. Iron ore has plunged by almost a third this year in a slump that’s made it one of the worst-performing major commodities and, by definition, sectors in the stock market.
Another positive session for the ASX as we continue to gradually recover from last week’s aggressive sell-off, though, the best of it was seen early and the index finished ~60 points below the morning highs, which isn’t a great look having hit resistance at the mid-point of the trading range – see chart below. The Iron Ore miners were the catalyst with weakness in Iron Ore Futures coming out of Singapore, while ANZ and NAB saw reasonable selling after the market digested the quality of CBA’s result, and what it meant for peers – NAB out tomorrow with a trading update.
Yesterday saw strength return to the banking sector with ANZ and CBA leading gains, though the broad sector was up an average of 1%. That was offset by weakness in Healthcare and a muted session for the miners, keeping the index in a tight range to start the week. We’re starting to see a more eclectic mix of performers, while some of the recent winners are buckling under high expectations.
Stocks that have been under earnings pressure are starting to show signs of life. Packaging company Orora (ORA) rallied 19% on an informal takeover approach that could prompt other bidders from the sidelines, with ORA bringing forward their results announcement and strategy update to today. Metal recycler Sims Group (SGM) announced further rationalisation of their business, selling non-core assets – the market likes that pushing shares 10% higher, while Challenger Group (CGF) provided a strong outlook for annuity sales in FY25.
A mildly positive session at the index level, with solid banks offset by weakness in CSL that detracted over 20 index points from the main board alone. Elsewhere, some hits and misses as reporting season ramps up.
We are taking profit on a retail holding today in the Active Growth Portfolio
The ASX200 recovered a further +0.5% on Monday, although it wasn’t an overly impressive day for the Australian market. The local index surrendered ~40% of its early morning gains, closing near the day’s low. The resources sector continued to weigh on the broader market, e.g. Beach Energy (BPT) -12.6%, Mineral Resources (MIN) -3.8%, Fortescue (FMG) -1.4%, and BHP group (BHP) -0.5%. The banks again boosted the index from a points perspective, although the retailers provided some of the best performances after JB Hi-Fi’s (JBH) solid result, plus a surprise 80c fully franked special dividend and a positive trading update for July helped send the household name up over 8%.
An okay session for the ASX today, though it traded a long way below the session highs as sellers came in throughout the day. Results from JB Hi-Fi (JBH) and CAR Group (CAR) both solid, underpinning good rallies from both. We’re not getting too optimistic on the broader market though, and wouldn’t be surprised to see more volatility/downside play out from here i.e. we’re sticking with our more cautious short term stance.
A quick look at the US VIX (volatility) Index, largely renamed “Fear Gauge,” puts the last few weeks’ panic selling into perspective. The BOJ’s rate hike, combined with fears that the Fed was going to push the US into a recession by cutting interest rates too slowly, sent shockwaves through global equities, although ultimately, the ASX200 and S&P 500 only fell 6.4% and 9.7%, respectively. However, it was the manner of sharp declines which caught a relatively complacent market, which had been revelling in new all-time highs through much of July, napping:
The ASX200 experienced yet another rollercoaster of a week, finally ending down -2.1%, but it was much worse before Friday’s strong +1.25 broad-based bounce. However, the bulls mustn’t get carried too away after the end-of-week jump; the index has only recovered around 30% of its sharp losses since the unwinding of the Yen “Carry Trade” sent shock waves through financial markets. Reporting season is starting to have an impact on major over/underperformers, but it’s likely to be far more pronounced next week as things really get underway this week. Only the Utilities Sector finished last week in positive territory, with the Energy, Tech and Financial Sectors weighing heavily on the main index:
A good way to end a very volatile week for equities with the ASX rallying nicely in a broad based move, 90% of the ASX 200 finishing up on the day. For the week, the ASX lost 2.1%, not too bad considering, with Utilities being the lone sector to end the 5-days in the green.
