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Overnight, Jim Chalmers delivered his pre-election budget, and not surprisingly, he “splashed the cash.” The government has committed to increasing net spending by over $24bn over the next four years; the Treasurer believes his budget will cut inflation by 0.5% next FY, but financial markets were not convinced. The deficit was forecast to be around $18bn in December; already, 6-months later, the figures jumped by a whopping +55%, while the forecasted 2025 deficit is more than double economists’ previous estimates – why bother!
The ASX drifted back today ahead of the Federal Budget due for release tonight, some headlines already coming through suggesting a ~$9b surplus will be announced alongside some support for critical minerals including nickel and copper. We suspect some of the weakness today was a risk-off move ahead of US inflation data on Wednesday though stocks in Asia were fairly quiet while US Futures were unchanged during our time zone.
Overnight, we heard that the BHP v Anglo-American story had entered and finished Chapter II, and the saga could potentially have taken its final twist:
BHP increased its bid for Anglo-American (AAL LN), which would have given AAL shareholders 16.6% of the new group, up from 14.8%.
According to BHP, the revised bid of 0.8132 BHP shares, up from 0.7097, for each AAL share values the London-based miner at £27.53 – a 14.6% increase to bid 1.
The second more attractive bid by BHP was rejected by the AAL board overnight.
The UK miner now needs to deliver a compelling vision of how it can survive and flourish independently without merging with the “Big Australian.” The synergies were undoubtedly there, although it wasn’t the cleanest deal in town, but AAL don’t appear keen to tango. The deal was offered to the AAL board last week and formally rejected overnight.
A quiet start to a busy week from a data perspective, the Australian Budget is out tomorrow (not usually market moving), ahead of the US Inflation Data on Wednesday (which is usually market moving). Today, stocks moved in a tight ~20-point range with little conviction in either direction, before a spurt in the last hour pushed the index into positive territory (just).
April witnessed a bearish move by bonds and equities, driven by escalating interest rate fears as “sticky inflation” became a regularly used catchphrase across financial markets. Conversely, so far in May, we’ve witnessed a complete reversion in the market’s thinking/pricing for the future path of interest rates after both the Fed and RBA left rates on hold and delivered less hawkish rhetoric than many feared. Also, for good measure, markets embraced the recent “goldilocks” US employment data, which was a miss on job creation, while monthly wage growth slipped 0.2% from March; the latter was the number that caught most people’s attention.
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong week, closing up +1.6% even after a sharp drop on Thursday when the retail and banking sectors dragged the broader market lower. By Friday’s close, 10 out of 11 sectors on the main board had closed higher, with only the Consumer Discretionary Sector finishing in negative territory. On the stock level, there were some standout performances on both sides of the ledger, while the local index finished 2% below its all-time high, lagging slightly on the global stage:
Todays afternoon note will not be available from Market Matters. We’ll provide an overview of the week in tomorrow’s Q&A Report. Apologies for the inconvenience.
The Market Matters Team
We are making two changes to the Growth Portfolio this morning
The Utilities Sector is not large, making up only 2% of the ASX200 by market cap. However, the sector is up +9.5% in 2024, compared to the ASX200, which has only advanced +1.7%, making it the second best-performing sector behind tech on the main board. With a market concerned about valuations and interest rates poised to fall through 2024/5, defensive plays with solid, reliable yields are likely to maintain their recent solid performance.
A tough session for the ASX today with a confluence of factors combining to hit Property, Financials and Retailers fairly hard. Signs that consumers are starting to feel the pinch of higher rates was the common theme, with both CBA and Judo highlighting an uptick in arrears on the same day that several retailers flagged softer sales.
