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A number of major ASX200 stocks hit fresh recent highs on Monday, led by heavyweight real estate favourite Goodman Group (GMG) – as we’ve discussed in the past, this is one particular holding we are bullish over the medium term and are “happy to let it run” – MM is long GMG in our Active Growth Portfolio. This morning, we deliberately looked at five stocks, not in MM portfolios, but it was pleasing to see Xero (XRO) and Sandfire (SFR) both continuing to deliver and joining GMG in the winner’s enclosure – note we already looked at Webjet (WEB) earlier in this mornings report hence didn’t cover again.
A solid session to kick off the shortened trading week ahead of the Easter long weekend, with Property & Energy stocks underpinning the strength throughout the day, with the ASX 200 closing back above 7800, once again, knocking on the door of new highs. It’s hard to argue with the prevailing strength, and while some are now highlighting overvaluation at the index level, we don’t think that’s the right call given the soft landing that’s playing out from an economic perspective. With the ASX 200 on 16.8x Est earnings that are growing ~5%, it’s certainly not cheap but equally, it’s not overly stretched when we consider that analysts have underappreciated the recovery in earnings that is underway, both here and in the US.
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid penultimate week of March, taking solace from the FOMC’s read on interest rates with the Materials, Real Estate and Financials leading the advance, whereas weakness in the Consumer Staples and Utilities Sectors illustrated it was another week of “risk on” for stocks. In line with global equities, especially the European stocks, our preferred scenario is to see a test of the 7900-8000 region over the coming weeks. Still, we are conscious that the seasonally weak “sell in May & go away” period is approaching fast.
The ASX advanced 1.3% last week, but it failed to follow US stocks to fresh all-time highs as the RBA ended the week on a far more hawkish footing than the Fed. The FOMC saw Jerome Powel confirm that the Fed is still looking to cut interest rates three times in 2024, whereas Michele Bullock isn’t discounting rate hikes following Australia’s surprisingly strong employment data on Thursday. On Friday, the RBA delivered the sobering message that borrowers can cope with higher interest rates, which led some to suggest further hikes will follow in 2024: “Strong conditions in the labour market, the large savings buffers accumulated by many borrowers during the pandemic and rising house prices are helping households to adapt to challenging economic conditions,”.
Today saw a softer end to a positive week for equities, a typical sort of Friday following a good run in the market; US stocks made new highs overnight while the ASX threatened our own milestone, in a week heavy with Central Bank rhetoric. Wednesday also saw the 4th anniversary of the COVID low in markets, the ASX 200 hitting 4402 on a Friday morning that we still remember vividly, and while we’re all still feeling some impact, the ASX is now up an impressive 75% in that time
The ASX200 rebalances quarterly, which effectively means out with the old (poor performers) and in with the new (strong performers). Stocks need to meet a number of criteria to enter the ASX200, including market cap, liquidity, number of shareholders, and “free float.” This means the index effectively undergoes a quality filter on a regular basis where, unlike investors/traders, it exits stocks which aren’t cutting the proverbial mustard.
We are tweaking the International Equities Portfolio
A volatile session for the ASX today, however, the bullish vibe overcame better-than-expected employment data and a slight rejig to expectations around rate cuts to push stocks sharply higher, only one good day away from following US stocks to new highs.
The Fed reiterated that it is expecting to cut interest rates three times in 2024, with June the most likely start of the pivot, and as we saw overnight, it is great news for risk assets. However, it might surprise some to see the Real Estate Sector struggle to keep up with its peers overnight, only advancing +0.26% compared to the S&P500, which advanced by +0.9%, and there are no obvious signs that this relative underperformance will change, primarily because the sector has already moved 25% from its late 2023 low – it’s a very similar picture on the ASX where most names remain up in the short term, but are still well below their post-COVID highs.
The best of it was seen early on today with a bullish start tapering off throughout the session ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s decision on Interest rates tomorrow morning our time. The index fell 45pts from high to low, largely tracking US Futures which were sold off throughout the session. Energy was one of the few highlights, alongside Telcos which have been choppy of late. Tech was the main drag.
