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A positive yet unconvincing session locally with the ASX easing off throughout the day, with weakness in Energy & Materials partially offsetting strength in IT, Healthcare & Property.
We all know that 2024 has delivered a noticeably differing performance on the sector level so far, and this particular elastic band is likely to be stretched further this morning. The Tech Sector has outperformed the Materials by a whopping 35%. After moves overnight and renewed Chinese economic jitters, we could easily see it reach 40% this FY. Under the hood, the markets delivered even greater divergence of performance, with 5% of ASX200 stocks down 30% or more. Over the same period, the markets rallied ~1.6% before dividends, not a huge gain but still on the correct side of the ledger. This is a great example that avoiding losers is every bit as important as picking winners; one of the reasons MM Active Growth Portfolio is enjoying another solid year is that we’ve avoided 9 of the 10 names altogether while only enduring part of Corporate Travel’s (CTD) -33% decline so far this year.
Another session where commodities weighed on the ASX, although some tentative buying in some parts of the market had the index finish ~20 points above session lows. US inflation data is due out tonight, expecting +3.4% YoY followed closely by the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates (no change tipped) – we should hopefully get some clearer air to end the week.
We are making changes to the Growth Portfolio.
We are less than halfway into June, and Europe has already elevated volatility across equity markets following a rate cut by the ECB and looming elections in the UK and France, where, in both cases, the incumbent party is in real danger of being ousted. There is an old saying that when the Dow sneezes, the ASX catches a cold; however, in the current market environment, the ASX is far more correlated to European stocks on a day-to-day basis, although, unfortunately, we have been underperforming both regions so far this year.
Equities were put under significant pressure with the market suffering its worst day since April as political risks and higher bond yields following the strong US Jobs data last week weighed on risk assets. The Materials sector was the main culprit of the weakness, gold stocks, in particular, taking a beating on the back of the tumble seen by the precious metal on Friday night.
Equity markets hate uncertainty, which was illustrated overnight by French CAC’s initial 2.4% plunge following Macron’s surprise announcement. Our underlying concern is whether stocks can maintain their upside momentum, with political and economic uncertainty increasing almost by the week—perhaps we are set for six months of ongoing stock and sector rotation.
The ASX200 market showed impressive resilience last week, rallying over 2%, inching ever closer to a new all-time high. The 8,000 milestone is now less than 2% away, a repeat performance, and we’re there. The strength should have encouraged the bulls, especially considering the market’s ability to close on its highs for the week ahead of the US Jobs Report. However, the market continues to deliver very mixed results on the stock and sector level, with the resources likely to take their turn in the “naughty corner” at the start of next week after copper and gold tumbled on Friday night. NB: The ASX is closed Monday.
A long weekend and some important data in the US tonight could have prompted caution today, however, that wasn’t the case with the ASX rallying into the close, finishing on its highs, and booking a 2% gain for the week – not a bad effort at all!
The FANG acronym has lost its popularity through 2024 as the “Magnificent Seven” and “Super Six” are more eye-catching and useful for clicks in today’s digital world. However, this index has continued to power to fresh all-time highs along with the NASDAQ, and while under the hood, not all stocks will move as one, the upside momentum of the index remains impressive.
