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The ASX200 shrugged off a number of headwinds last week including a Fed rate hike, hawkish comments from Jerome Powell, rising COVID numbers, a decent pullback in commodities and ongoing geopolitical worries surrounding Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine conflict including concerns that China will eventually mover to support Putin. Local stocks simply wanted to rally and nothing was going to stand in their way with the main index eventually closing up 231-points / 3.3%. MM continues to beat the same drum and importantly the rhythms playing out:

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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are healthcare stocks set to benefit from falling bond yields?

Healthcare stocks caught our attention on Wednesday after their +1.3% advance. However, they’ve been a clear laggard in 2024, advancing only +2.1%, while four other sectors have delivered double-digit gains. The potential influence of the new wonder weight loss drug, Ozempic et al., has weighed on a couple of influential ASX names, but with interest rate cuts on the horizon, we question if this underperformance will continue. Another bonus from the sector is its label as a defensive play, a comforting addition to most portfolios with global equities pushing to fresh all-time highs.

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Afternoon report

The Match Out: Improving inflation supports rate cuts this year

The market opened on the back foot this morning before buyers stepped in, aided by softer-than-expected monthly inflation data that underpinned a good turnaround in stocks, particularly from the more defensive areas while IT took a breather.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is another “great rotation” close at hand?

As the market slips into the Easter long weekend, some profit-taking felt evident on Tuesday, no great surprise considering the index has rallied over 15% from its November low. The afternoon selling wasn’t overly aggressive, but as we touched on yesterday morning, the markets are a touch bullish and long; hence, some book-squaring/selling by the weak longs didn’t encounter any significant resistance. One of the main themes of 2024 to date has been the strong getting stronger and often the weak getting weaker, even as the ASX200 forged to fresh all-time highs. A quick glance at some sectors three months into the year tells the tale: remember, the index is up a healthy +2.5%.

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Afternoon report

The Match Out: A choppy session sees Monday’s gains largely wiped out

The market is losing some steam, or at least consolidating recent gains as we head into the Easter break. Monthly inflation data for Australia out tomorrow (3.5% exp) ahead of Retail Sales (0.4% exp) on Thursday while Good Friday sees key US personal consumption data that feeds into the all-important inflation picture, alongside a speech by Fed Treasurer Jerome Powell, both while markets are closed. It’s therefore easy to comprehend a lack of conviction on the buy side as stocks flirt with all-time highs.

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Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing five major stocks making fresh 52-week highs

A number of major ASX200 stocks hit fresh recent highs on Monday, led by heavyweight real estate favourite Goodman Group (GMG) – as we’ve discussed in the past, this is one particular holding we are bullish over the medium term and are “happy to let it run” – MM is long GMG in our Active Growth Portfolio. This morning, we deliberately looked at five stocks, not in MM portfolios, but it was pleasing to see Xero (XRO) and Sandfire (SFR) both continuing to deliver and joining GMG in the winner's enclosure – note we already looked at Webjet (WEB) earlier in this mornings report hence didn’t cover again.

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Afternoon report

The Match Out: Property stocks underpin positive Monday

A solid session to kick off the shortened trading week ahead of the Easter long weekend, with Property & Energy stocks underpinning the strength throughout the day, with the ASX 200 closing back above 7800, once again, knocking on the door of new highs. It’s hard to argue with the prevailing strength, and while some are now highlighting overvaluation at the index level, we don’t think that’s the right call given the soft landing that’s playing out from an economic perspective. With the ASX 200 on 16.8x Est earnings that are growing ~5%, it’s certainly not cheap but equally, it’s not overly stretched when we consider that analysts have underappreciated the recovery in earnings that is underway, both here and in the US.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: A mellow Fed pushes US equities to fresh all-time highs

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid penultimate week of March, taking solace from the FOMC’s read on interest rates with the Materials, Real Estate and Financials leading the advance, whereas weakness in the Consumer Staples and Utilities Sectors illustrated it was another week of “risk on” for stocks. In line with global equities, especially the European stocks, our preferred scenario is to see a test of the 7900-8000 region over the coming weeks. Still, we are conscious that the seasonally weak “sell in May & go away” period is approaching fast.

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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Gold makes new highs post the FOMC but struggles into the weekend

Saturday 23/3/2024 Intro Shawn Hickman ​ James Gerrish; ​ Harrison Watt ​ ​ 'Shawn Hickman' ​ [EXTERNAL EMAIL] Saturday 23rd March 2024 Weekend Q&A: Gold makes new highs post the FOMC but struggles into the weekend The ASX advanced 1.3% last week, but it failed to follow US stocks to fresh all-time highs as the RBA ended the week on a far more hawkish footing than the Fed. The FOMC saw Jerome Powel confirm that the Fed is still looking to cut interest rates three times in 2024, whereas Michele Bullock isn’t discounting rate hikes following Australia's surprisingly strong employment data on Thursday.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX trickles lower after a solid week

Today saw a softer end to a positive week for equities, a typical sort of Friday following a good run in the market; US stocks made new highs overnight while the ASX threatened our own milestone, in a week heavy with Central Bank rhetoric. Wednesday also saw the 4th anniversary of the COVID low in markets, the ASX 200 hitting 4402 on a Friday morning that we still remember vividly, and while we’re all still feeling some impact, the ASX is now up an impressive 75% in that time

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