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The ASX kicked off the new week in fine form that to a pause in US-Iran strikes, putting some probability back on diplomacy. The early spike higher as US Futures rallied was held and built on as the day progressed. Oil traded down 6%, bond yields fell ~10bps and the US was sold, pushing the AUD back up through US70c.
US credit markets are the most hawkish they’ve been in the last 2 years, pricing in one and probably two 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas – not that long since their last rate cut by 0.25% in Dec’25, the final move in an aggressive 1.75% easing cycle. Markets have increased rate hike expectations this month following hawkish Fed signals, renewed inflation concerns from higher oil prices, and rising long-term bond yields as heavy government borrowing increased. A cooler-than-anticipated inflation print (CPI) earlier in the month helped, but the oil price quickly became the overriding factor.
The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.3%, with the US-Iran conflict and a strong employment report pushing up bond yields, weighing on local risk assets. A Wall Street-led technology sell-off, driven by renewed concerns over the returns on AI capital expenditure, spilled over to the ASX, sending the local technology sector down 6.6% for the week. Healthcare also came under pressure, falling 5.7%, while strength in energy (+5.9%) and materials (+1.7%) helped limit the broader market’s losses.
The ASX 200 finished firmly lower today as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil back toward US$100/barrel, reigniting inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Aussie 3-year bond yield was up +10bps to 4.72%, while the 10 year yield pushed through 5%, settling at 5.08%.
The week’s most-watched ETFs tell a consistent story, the AI and semiconductor trade is cracking at the edges, inverse and bear products are seeing genuine retail interest for the first time in months, and international equity ETFs are absorbing record inflows as the broadening rotation away from US exceptionalism accelerates. However, funds continue to flow into stocks, with fund flows into active primary equity ETFs totalling more than US$17.5 billion for the week ending July 24, 2026.
The ASX 200 finished a touch higher, though there was a big intra-day reversal following stronger employment data out at 11.30am. The index was up more than 100pts before giving back most of the rally as investors increased the odds of another RBA rate hike.
Australia added 76,000 jobs in June, well ahead of the 15,000 expected, while unemployment held at 4.4%. The result pushed the Australian dollar above US70¢ and the 10-year bond yield toward 5%, with markets now pricing a 36% chance of an August rate rise with a full hike priced in by year-end. Next week’s quarterly inflation data has now become even more important.
A reasonable day for the ASX as investors returned to beaten-down miners, with strength across copper, gold and energy stocks more than offsetting weakness in healthcare and technology. The buying was patchy though, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher, implying there is still a fair degree of caution out there.
US stocks rose on Tuesday, led by semiconductor stocks, as investors looked through the latest developments in the Iran conflict and shifted their focus to a solid start to the US earnings season. Industrial giant 3M jumped more than 7% after delivering a stronger-than-expected second-quarter result, while General Motors gained nearly 5% after beating earnings and revenue forecasts. The reporting season has begun strongly, with almost 88% of the 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating earnings expectations. Attention now turns to results from Alphabet, IBM and Tesla later this week.
Another session where the ASX was hit early before buyers stepped in, with the index recovering around 60 points from its two-week low to finish marginally higher. Technology and gold stocks led the rebound as investors bought the dip following recent weakness, while softer oil prices helped ease some concerns around inflation and the outlook for US interest rates.
Brent crude eased below US$89/barrel after rising almost 6% over the previous two sessions, while gold recovered toward US$4,050/oz. The improvement in offshore technology sentiment also helped, with US futures turning higher and Asian chip stocks rebounding after the sharp sell-off triggered by concerns around Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model.
