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The Match Out Market Matters

A second day of declines for the ASX, though it was hardly aggressive, and more stocks actually rose than fell, as banks and healthcare names weighed at the index level. The Macquarie conference kicked off this morning and we’ve seen a bunch of companies recut guidance, more on the downside than upside which is customary but it wasn’t all bad news with several re-affirming prior numbers.

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The ASX200 struggled on Monday following a mildly softer report from Westpac (WBC), the first influential bank to face the music this month. Their headline first-half miss on profit, a flat dividend (76c) when the market was looking for an increase and a slight net interest margin (NIM) contraction sent the 4th largest stock on the bourse down 3% on the day.

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The Match Out Market Matters

Red returned to the screen today with broad based weakness across the ASX. The banks came under pressure after Westpac’s 1H25 numbers mildly underwhelmed while a sharp pullback in Oil prices put the Kibosh on the energy stocks. It’s been a very good run in the market from the 7th April low of 7169, with the ASX 200 up ~1000pts / 15%, some consolidation of the move now likely in our view.

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The S&P 500 has extended its post “Liberation Day” rally to the longest winning streak in two decades, with worries around tariffs being replaced by “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) for cashed-up investors. A strong jobs report on Friday compounded optimism that the US and China’s dialogue around tariffs would prove fruitful.

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The ASX 200 surged another +3.4% last week, taking the main index up almost 15% from its April low, amazingly back within 4.4% of its February all-time high. We suspected “Offshore Buying” had been creeping into our market, and the last three sessions convinced us of it as the market again ended another week on its highs. All 11 main sectors finished the week higher, but a +9.6% surge by the tech sector stood out after strong earnings from US heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT US) and Meta Platforms (META US) re-ignited the “AI trade” and overall belief towards the tech/growth names:

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The Match Out Market Matters

The trend of ‘risk off into the weekend’, prevalent in early April, has well and truly flipped as the ASX closed higher on the final trading day of the week for the 3rd consecutive week this afternoon.

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Different month, same ASX200, the local market opened down before slowly climbing higher throughout the day to ultimately end the session up +0.2%, near the intraday high. The tech sector led the gains, surging over 4% following strong results overnight from Meta Platforms (META US) and Microsoft (MSFT US) – more on the AI & Data Centre stocks later. It was the sixth consecutive daily gain for the ASX200, although it was the weakest session since the advance began, and some consolidation is feeling close at hand.

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The Match Out Market Matters

The ASX backed up a solid recovery in April with a positive session to kick off May with 70% of the main board finishing higher. While the influential banks and resources generally struggled, there were some good moves elsewhere with technology and Date Centre stocks buoyed by better results from Meta and Microsoft overnight that imply AI spending remains robust.

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The ASX 200 popped higher in the last hour of April trade, taking the local index up 3.6% for the month. This has been a dramatic and impressive turnaround considering the carnage following “Liberation Day.” Similarly, global stocks were sitting up +0.5% ahead of overnight trade with the US reporting season set to take the markets’ focus, at least for a week or two.

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The Match Out Market Matters

The ASX opened stronger following robust trading overnight as US investors shrugged off weak economic data and continued a rotation into risk on stocks as SP 500 companies impress on quarterly earnings. Key data releases locally mid-morning threatened to shake investor confidence — weaker Chinese manufacturing figures and a hotter-than-expected domestic CPI print.

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