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A hotter-than-expected inflation print has poured some cold water on what was shaping up as a very strong rebound for the ASX today. The market opened firmly, riding a strong lead from Wall Street and growing conviction around a December cut from the US Fed — but local data somewhat changed the tone.
The ASX200 limped into the close on Tuesday finishing the day up +0.1%, after spending most of the day swinging between positive and negative territory. A sell-off in the banking sector all but wiped-out the markets initial gain with a ~7% plunge by Bendigo Bank leading the decline.
We are making several changes to the Emerging Companies Portfolio
The ASX ended the session broadly unchanged, with gains in miners, gold stocks and select tech names offset by heavy selling across the major banks. There was limited activity at the index level ahead of tomorrow’s first full monthly CPI release, expected to show a lift in inflation. Tech names benefited from renewed optimism around potential US rate cuts, though the weight of financials capped any meaningful momentum into the close.
The ASX 200 opened strongly on Monday, buoyed by Friday’s dovish commentary from the Feds John Williams, and encouragingly it held those gains throughout the session. The index closed near its highs, up 1.3%, with 85% of the main board advancing. It was the local markets largest gain in 4-months with positive sentiment reinforced after Macquarie Asset Management offered to buy Qube Holdings (QUB) in a $11.6 billion deal, sending the logistics company up more than 19%.
The ASX found its footing today, snapping back from a six-month low as investors embraced a more dovish tone from the US Federal Reserve. After nearly $40bn was wiped off the local market late last week, today’s relief rally felt well-timed and broad-based. Rate-sensitives led the bounce, but we also saw solid rotation across industrials, healthcare and selected pockets of materials.
Division within the Fed has increased in recent weeks, as policymakers deliver increasingly divergent positions ahead of the central bank’s December meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell remains conspicuously silent. The situation escalated on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams — often viewed as a bellwether for Powell’s thinking — signalled support for a rate cut, even as several other officials argued against easing policy.
The ASX 200 ended the week down another -2.5% with only the defensive natured consumer staples sector managing to eke out a small gain. It was the local market’s worst week since “Liberation Day” with the index closing at its lowest level since June, on a combination of worries around stretched valuations and the direction of interest rates. On Friday, the local bourse closed 7.7% below its all-time high posted in October when the prospect of lower rates was managing to offset lingering fears around frothy valuations.
The ASX limped into the weekend, chalking up its fourth straight weekly loss. That’s a tough run by any measure, putting November’s losses at ~5% so far — the worst monthly showing since September 2022. Ongoing uncertainty around US interest rates after a slightly stronger-than-expected US labour report showed 119k jobs added vs. 50k expected, while risk off flows have knocked the likes of Bitcoin, now trading $US86k down from $US125k high.
The ASX 200 surged over 100-points on Thursday, embracing the “risk on” thematic which cascaded through global markets after Nvidia beat expectations to reignite the “AI Trade”. It was the upbeat nature of the world’s largest stock that got the tech sector excited, with Nvidia trading up ~5% in post market trade pushing NASDAQ Futures +1.5% following the result and bullish outlook:
