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The ASX200 gave up early gains and finished lower today after investors were rattled by a fiery speech from US President Donald Trump at midday our time, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict. The index traded up as much as ~0.4% earlier in the session before reversing sharply as oil prices surged and geopolitical risks again took centre stage.
The ASX200 rallied strongly on Wednesday, surging more than 2% in a broad-based advance that saw ~14% of the index rise by 6%, or more. The move followed comments from President Trump suggesting the US military conflict could end within two to three weeks, boosting confidence around the global economic growth outlook.
The ASX surged today, recovering from the worst monthly performance in four years as markets latched onto signs the Iran conflict could begin to wind down. The morning open was reason enough to call it a strong session, though a late 30pt rally in the final 20 minutes of trade was the cherry on top as the index closed on its highs. It was a broad rally as ten of eleven sectors finished higher with materials leading the charge, while the defensive utilities dragged as risk on sentiment returned to the bourse.
The ASX200 endured another volatile session on Tuesday, ultimately finishing up 20 points after trading in a wide ~140-point range—swinging from a 50-point loss to a near 70-point gain at its peak. It’s the kind of price action that unsettles headline-driven investors, but the question remains: should it? We all know the reasons why financial markets are volatile, so let’s focus on the numbers for March, as opposed to trying to second-guess President Trump’s next move:
It was a story of two tales today as the ASX whipsawed from negative to positive territory at midday, before giving back most of the gains rapidly into the close. Early weakness was shaken off as the market reacted to reports that US President Donald Trump may be prepared to wind down the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
The ASX200 recovered almost two-thirds of Monday’s early losses to close down 0.65%, with underlying buying evident across much of the market, even as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices to near four-year highs. However, this strength was offset by pronounced weakness in the influential banking sector, with the “Big Four” subtracting more than 55 points from the index and driving the majority of the day’s decline.
While the market closed lower again today, which is becoming a feature of recent Mondays, the weakest part of the session was behind us early. Headline-driven selling dominated at the open, pushing the ASX 200 down toward ~8380, but that weakness was steadily absorbed as the day wore on, with buyers stepping back in and the index grinding around 70 points off its morning lows by the close.
Markets remain fascinating at present, though an undercurrent of nervousness and confusion is clearly building. President Trump had previously “jawboned” both oil and bond markets into holding relatively firm in anticipation of a resolution, but that influence now appears to be fading. Headlines that would have supported risk assets only weeks ago are increasingly being largely ignored.
The ASX200 finished a choppy week up +1%, a solid result given the index gapped down ~2% on Monday. Volatility was elevated, with three sessions posting 100-point intraday swings—moves that would typically define a month. Geopolitics remain front of mind: the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities on Friday, prompting retaliation across the Persian Gulf. The escalation followed President Trump’s delay of a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain on edge, with Brent Crude above $US113 the key focus, the prolonged conflict is increasing the risk of more meaningful damage to the global economy.
The ASX 200 snapped a three-week losing streak, though there was little conviction around the local market today, with the index slipping mildly lower by the close – although it did recover ~50 points from the morning low as US Futures traded up.
