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The ASX 200 posted its best session in almost a year today after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, triggering a sharp unwind of the war risk premium that has dominated markets over the past six weeks. The ceasefire, reportedly brokered through diplomatic channels including Pakistan, came just hours after US President Donald Trump warned he would escalate attacks on Iran’s infrastructure if shipping routes remained blocked.
The ASX200 closed up an impressive +1.7% on Tuesday although it was well off its mid-morning high where at its best it was up 225-points, or 2.6%. All 11 sectors ended higher, lifting the market to its highest close since mid-March, with the influential banks and miners leading the charge, BHP and CBA alone accounted for ~35% of the day’s gains.
The ASX200 fell 1.1% on Thursday heading into the Easter break, extending the recent trend of late-week weakness as investors de-risk amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The ASX200 gave up early gains and finished lower today after investors were rattled by a fiery speech from US President Donald Trump at midday our time, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict. The index traded up as much as ~0.4% earlier in the session before reversing sharply as oil prices surged and geopolitical risks again took centre stage.
The ASX200 rallied strongly on Wednesday, surging more than 2% in a broad-based advance that saw ~14% of the index rise by 6%, or more. The move followed comments from President Trump suggesting the US military conflict could end within two to three weeks, boosting confidence around the global economic growth outlook.
The ASX surged today, recovering from the worst monthly performance in four years as markets latched onto signs the Iran conflict could begin to wind down. The morning open was reason enough to call it a strong session, though a late 30pt rally in the final 20 minutes of trade was the cherry on top as the index closed on its highs. It was a broad rally as ten of eleven sectors finished higher with materials leading the charge, while the defensive utilities dragged as risk on sentiment returned to the bourse.
The ASX200 endured another volatile session on Tuesday, ultimately finishing up 20 points after trading in a wide ~140-point range—swinging from a 50-point loss to a near 70-point gain at its peak. It’s the kind of price action that unsettles headline-driven investors, but the question remains: should it? We all know the reasons why financial markets are volatile, so let’s focus on the numbers for March, as opposed to trying to second-guess President Trump’s next move:
It was a story of two tales today as the ASX whipsawed from negative to positive territory at midday, before giving back most of the gains rapidly into the close. Early weakness was shaken off as the market reacted to reports that US President Donald Trump may be prepared to wind down the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
The ASX200 recovered almost two-thirds of Monday’s early losses to close down 0.65%, with underlying buying evident across much of the market, even as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices to near four-year highs. However, this strength was offset by pronounced weakness in the influential banking sector, with the “Big Four” subtracting more than 55 points from the index and driving the majority of the day’s decline.
