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Last month, the new Fed Chair struck a hawkish tone in his first press conference, sending gold and copper prices lower while lifting the US dollar after signalling policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates further if required to rein in inflation.
The ASX 200 finished the week on a strong note, rallying as investors embraced weaker-than-expected US employment data that reinforced the view the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The market opened firmly higher, grinding up before holding its gains through to the end of the session, with buying broad-based across the index as nine of the eleven sectors finished in positive territory.
The ASX200 recovered from a weak opening on Thursday, reversing early losses to end higher, albeit just! There were two main catalysts for the recovery, from very different areas of the market.
The ASX finished little changed on Thursday, recovering from a weak open with the index down -0.7% in early trade, as a bounce in the banks offset broad-based weakness across the local bourse.
The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia’s housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
The ASX kicked off FY27 with a disappointing start, with heavy selling across the banks and consumer staples proving too much to overcome despite a solid rebound in the resources sector. The market drifted lower through the session as investors locked in profits from some of FY26’s biggest winners, while strength in Materials and Healthcare provided little support against broad-based weakness elsewhere.
The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX spent most of the session churning in a relatively tight 20-point trading range, with strength in the banks and technology sector largely offset by another weak day for the miners. The market looked comfortable drifting sideways for much of the afternoon before that balance broke down into the close, with the index accelerating lower in what looked like end-of-financial-year tax-loss selling. There were few buyers willing to absorb the selling pressure, leaving the index to finish well off its intraday highs. Despite the weak close, today’s price action looked more like portfolio positioning than a deterioration in the macro backdrop.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there’s a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
