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The ASX200 advanced +0.6%, closing at a three-month high, on Tuesday. The index was trading lower into lunchtime before the S&P 500 futures got the proverbial “bit between its teeth,” pushing higher after Japan indicated it’s considering a reduction in bond issuance.
The direction of least resistance remains on the upside, with the ASX adding another 0.5% in what should have been a quiet day of trade. No noise (from Trump) is good noise, though it seems when noise does come out, the market is digesting it much better, on the expectation it will ultimately get diluted. Our premise going into and through the tariff meltdown was that this was a strategy rather than a policy, which is proving to be the case, though the market is becoming complacent as it trades only ~250pts below it’s all-time high.
The ASX200 ended flat in a surprisingly quiet session on Monday, considering the market uncertainty around tariffs towards the EU and Apple, plus the recent volatility with the longer-dated bonds.
A weaker open was implied by SPI Futures, though an easing in time frames by President Trump towards the EU following a ‘nice talk’ between the two saw US equity futures rally, dragging our market with them. Uranium stocks the place to be today, and while news broke during our trading session on Friday (about Trumps executive orders to fast track Nuclear), the moves were undercooked, so, some further upside played out today. We think this is a material change in ‘vibe’ towards the sector that could be the catalyst to see the term contracting market fire back up.
From the US to Japan, long-term borrowing costs for the world’s biggest economies are surging as investors question governments’ ability to cover massive budget deficits.
The ASX 200 ended the week up 2.47% courtesy of the widely anticipated RBA rate cut and Michele Bullock’s not-so-widely-expected dovish rhetoric. Credit markets are now looking for an additional three rate cuts by Christmas or February’26 at the latest. Not surprisingly, the rate-sensitive names led the advance, with tech, real estate, and financial stocks adding the most points to the index, riding the RBA wave of optimism, although there were plenty of losers on the stock level, as the macro and economic news kept on flowing.
A relatively quiet session played out on the ASX today after flat U.S markets overnight and mild Futures this morning with limited news on the corporate front providing limited direction for the local bourse
The ASX 200 retreated on Thursday following a bond-induced weak session on Wall Street; the Dow ultimately closed down over 800 points. However, while the local bond market remains buoyant, following the dovish RBA commentary earlier in the week, with three cuts expected before Christmas, it wasn’t enough to support a market with over 60% of the main board closing lower.
A weaker session for the ASX, though a drop of 0.45% relative to the 1.6% decline on Wall Street shows good relative performance, which has been an ongoing theme in recent months. Gold stocks did well again while there was some sporadic corporate news flow that impacted individual names, but not a lot of top tier news flow today.
The ASX 200 extended May’s advance to +3.2%, taking the index within striking distance of its February all-time high. However, although the market finished up 0.5%, gains were far from broad-based, with over 45% of the ASX200 closing lower.
