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Orthocell Ltd (OCC)

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Orthocell Ltd (OCC)

Following on your favourable appraisal last week of this company, I wonder if you have a method of forecasting the share value based on the addressable market of its key products and the number of shares on the market. The OCC has suggested a US market value of $1.6bn if approval is given. OCC has 200m shares (I believe). This would imply revenue per share of some $7 per share. If costs can be managed, a $5-7 share price wouldn't be out of the question, would it?

Answer

Hi Sandy,

As you say we did like Orthocell Ltd (OCC) last week and the market listened, at least short term, sending this $380mn Australian biotechnology company up +7.5% in a quiet market although we note 10% swings are common place for OCC.

This is the quandary on biotech’s, there are lots of assumptions involved, including the view that the U.S. market for peripheral nerve repair is exceeds US$1.6 billion annually but​ here are some back of the envelope calculations:

  • There are 242mn shares of OCC, and with a strong balance sheet a capital raise appears highly unlikely.
  • The million dollar question is if the $1.6bn estimate is close what % can OCC capture.
  • If it’s just 10% and OCC can maintain its 46% margin this equals ~$74mn profit, which makes the stock cheap in our opinion.

We like OCC initially looking for new highs up towards $2, but, we are always nervous towards Biotech’s.

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Orthocell Ltd (OCC)
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