Hi John,
Two asset managers who have struggled for the last 12-months and in the case of PPT its been to closer to 4-years. The important point is to look ahead, not at the present as these businesses have a lot of overlap plus some subtle differences:
GQG Partners Inc (GQG): GQG earns management fees and performance fees on the funds it manages. The problem is GQG has experienced redemptions as its underperformed high flying indices due to a recent more conservative stance – time will tell whether there caution proves correct. Poor performance generally leads to outflows, outflows = lower earnings and dividends, which is what the market is preemptively pricing.
- In August, in its 1H 2025 report, GQG noted that net flows were down ~28% compared to the prior year period (~US$8 billion vs US$11 billion) and flagged “redemption pressure” especially in Australia and its UCITS funds.
- Funds under management (FUM) still rose (to about US$172.4 billion as at 30 June 2025) thanks to capital appreciation.
- The stock has lost its growth valuation and is now trading ~40% below its average PE of recent years.
We bought the stock for yield and growth and it looks a bargain below $1.50 but if redemptions gather momentum the dividend will follow suit – aka Magellan. Obviously not our preferred scenario but we will be watching funds flows carefully.
Perpetual Ltd (PPT): We discussed PPT in length last month and goalposts haven’t moved. We believe there is more value inside PPT than today’s price implies and while the ATO put the kibosh on KKRs takeover, it doesn’t mean they or other suitors aren’t still lurking. Management are looking to simplify the business by divesting Wealth Management and focusing on Trust and Global Funds Management but it may take time for the stock to turn as it continue to suffer outflows. Regarding the wealth business, it’s not worth much, hence why the market is not that focused on it’s potential sale.
- PPT is in our Hitlist of the MM Income Portfolio but our ideal entry remains ~$17 – we’re being patient.