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GPT

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GPT

Hi James & team, Would you mind reiterating your case for GPT again - I note that its a switch from GMG - timely - and its to play the decreasing yield thematic as inflation cools. However, would you mind elaborating how cheap (or expensive) the stock is at current levels - i.e. P/BV, div yield, EPS growth prospects, and key risks. Thanks very much! Young

Answer

Hi Young,

The specific information is available on the MM Website within the Financials, Ratios and Forecasts areas although also do often defer to Bloomberg for relative information (“how cheap”) things are:

  • GPT is still cheap compared to GMG and most of its peers as the table below illustrates.

The company reports on the 19th and as we saw this week with Mirvac (MGR) property stocks still have some headwinds in different areas.

In the case of GPT, valuations of its assets such as the MLC Centre & Australia Square, both in Sydney, and Melbourne Central, plus occupancy rates are concerning some investors. However, we expect office leasing will continue to be the key driver of GPT’s share price and FY25 earnings while continued retail resilience (relative to peers) should support GPT’s earnings in FY24.

  • GPT’s dividend is sustainable at 24c pa growing to 26c over the coming few years.
  • The stock is trading well below the value of its assets allowing room for negative property portfolio revaluations – a core market concern.
  • Key risk is whether or not we’re too early here, as we were with Mirvac.
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GPT Group (GPT) relative valuation
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