The result was very solid today, interestingly, office occupancy is running better than expected at 92.4% and office income decline was only 1.3% for the year i.e. not as doom and gloom as many thought. Logistics and retail were strong as expected, with occupancy at 99.4% and 99.6% respectively, with retail showing income growth of 5.8% and an average annual rental increase of 4.9%. The growth aspect of this stock comes from funds management, which will become a bigger slice of the pie in coming years.
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We switched to GPT from Goodman Group (GMG) at the start of the month, a contentious move at the time, but it has at least worked through a volatile August. GPT has actually been positive over the last week, and although a few days doesn’t justify a purchase, it is demonstrating that high-yielding rate-sensitive names are in demand, with central banks poised to commence cutting interest rates.
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GMG has been a standout performer in 2024, surging +39% year-to-date, but we started reducing our exposure in mid-July on valuation grounds. We think GMG is a great business, and applaud their move into Data-Centres which looks like another master stroke by CEO Greg Goodman, however, our concern in the short term centres on the dislocation between a great strategy, and the timing around the actual earnings that strategy will generate
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As subscribers know, MM's preferred scenario is that the RBA doesn’t hike interest rates in 2024, which should provide a tailwind for GPT. The business is an active owner and manager of a diversified portfolio of Australian property assets, including the MLC Centre & Australia Square in Sydney and Melbourne Central.
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GPT soared 6.9% on Wednesday, placing it 5th amongst the tearaway real estate stocks; usually, such a move would see a stock sitting on top of the pile! This active owner and manager of a diversified portfolio of Australian retail, office and industrial property assets has already surged over +20% in less than 3-weeks.
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GPT Group (GPT) was actually the first A-REIT publicly listed in 1971 and it owns a diversified portfolio of office, retail, and industrial properties plus It also has a fund management platform. The Funds Management segment provides asset and funds management of Australian wholesale fund vehicles, as well as investments by the company in GPT Wholesale Office Fund and GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund.
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MM had GPT on our radar in September when the stock dipped under $3.90 but we ended up buying REA Group (REA) instead which in hindsight was the wrong way to move unless we can see the recent tech strength reignite REA. GPT is an active owner and manager of a diversified portfolio of Australian property assets including the MLC Centre & Australia Square in Sydney and Melbourne Central, on the base level we believe the stocks trading on a relatively attractive valuation of 14x Est 2022 while its expected to yield almost 6.4% over the next 12-months. The stock also offers some compelling value trading at a substantial ~28% discount to its NTA.
We like GPT but after its +22% bounce, the risk/reward is clearly less attractive.
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GPT has been on the MM radar for the last few weeks but when we pressed the “buy buttons” yesterday it was REA that received our vote to increase our exposure to property. However, we still believe GPT’s correction is maturing fairly fast and the next 15-20% is likely to be on the upside.
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GPT has been covered a few times of late and as the stock continues to hover around $4 we remain comfortable maintaining a patient stance targeting fresh lows into the $3.80-90 region.
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GPT Group is an active owner and manager of a diversified portfolio of Australian retail, office and industrial property assets. The Group's property portfolio include the MLC Centre, Australia Square, Rouse Hill Town Centre and Melbourne Central.
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