Hi Scott,
It’s hard to speculate about Trumps underlying agenda, other than to say he is implementing what he promised on the campaign trail, it’s no “Black Swan” event, just lots of volatility as most people expected when he won last November.
Our thoughts on a few of your points:
- The $US has been going down since late 2022, although it has accelerated in 2025 as many countries look to spread their sovereign risk away from the Greenback hence the strong rally in gold.
- A weak currency is great for exports but it might also lead to higher import prices and potential inflationary pressures, which in turn can lead to higher interest rates.
- The U.S. Treasury has not announced plans to issue 100-year “century bonds” to manage the national debt. While the concept has been discussed in the past, there is no indication of imminent issuance and demand might not be high if people believe the $US is set to depreciate.
- Further, it would make little sense for them to lock in high borrowing costs for that duration, it would be much better to do that when rates are very low, not at restrictive levels as they are now.
The Mar-a-Lago Accord remains a theoretical proposal; its discussion underscores ongoing debates about the U.S.’s role in the global economy and the tools available to address fiscal and trade imbalances. Importantly, at MM we don’t believe the US will be able to change the course of history as the “Leader” economic banner passes down the line, potentially to China, just as it did with the Romans, Mongols in the 13th century, the Spaniards in the 16-17th century and the British Empire in the 19th – 2oth century.
- We believe the role of America and the $US Dollar as the global reserve currency is maturing fast although the transition usually takes decades, not just one presidential term.
