Hi Jeremy,
A very valid question and a scenario we have considered in recent months. Fortescue (FMG) is effectively a “high Beta” play on iron ore and China – in other words it will tend to move in more aggressive fashion than BHP, in both directions. From a dividend perspective we have to look a few years ahead, not just the most recent payout:
- BHP is forecast to yield around 5.5% in 2025 slowly slipping towards 4.6% by 2028.
- FMG is likely to yield slightly less going forward, having paid out a big dividend in FY24, with arguably more risk as it has less diversification.
Again these respective yields are determined by assumptions around respective commodity prices and the $A. We still like both stocks at current prices.