Hi Charles,
A very good question, especially considering MM are firm believers in “look after your losers, and the winners will look after themselves”. These three positions are weighing on the performance of our Active Growth Portfolio, although it does continue to outperform on most timeframes. Note, we also hold AMC in our Active Income Portfolio.
Importantly, we look at each position on it’s own merits, then as part of the portfolio as a whole, with consideration given to sector exposures and index weights. In the case of each stock covered today, we have actively considered alternatives, noting we are very prepared to take losses, its an important discipline in successful investing.
The 3 positions tell a very different tale:
Amcor Plc (AMC) – continues to look cheap, with potential upside from the Berry integration, but its facing a challenging mix of volume headwinds and currency pressure in a weakening consumer environment. A similar story to a few companies at present.
- We are running the n umbers on Brambles (ASX:BXB) as an alternative for our Active Growth Portfolio, providing as similar exposure from a company with stronger near term performance.
- The upcoming quarterly result (due 6 May) will be a the key. Focus on volumes in North American beverages and healthcare packaging—these will be the clearest indicators of whether the investment case is stabilising or continuing to deteriorate.
James Hardie Plc (JHX) – MM like many investors were “caught out” by JHX’s extremely disappointing $US8.4bn takeover of AZEK, and in hindsight our “first loss would have been our best loss.” However, from the $30 area we believe the next ~20% is more likely on the upside with the integration and cost improvements from its AZEK acquisition ahead of schedule.
- We have contemplated switching to Reece Limited (ASX:REH) but with its core business under threat from reinvigorated competitors that have secured new, deep-pocketed owners we’ve shelved the idea for now.
ResMed Inc (RMD) – we liked last weeks result discussed Here although the market didn’t agree on Friday. We remain underweight the struggling healthcare sector and don’t plan to increase this stance in the near future.
- We have also considered Fisher & Paykel (ASX:FPH) as an alternative but for now RMD looks better value, trading ~40% on the cheap side of it’s own history.