Longer dated bond yields have rotated around current levels since late 2024 as traders weigh up sticky inflation against the occasional sign of a softening economy. It may be a touch early to “bet” longer dated yields will fall below 4%, especially with recent news out of France and Japan, but that is the direction we ultimately believe they will travel.
- We believe the US and Australian 10s can test 4% in 2026.
MM is cautiously bullish on US and Australian bonds (yields lower), medium/long term
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